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Türkiye Ekonomisinde Finansal Serbestleşme Döneminde Uluslararası Sermaye Girişi - Büyüme İlişkisi

Söylemez, Arif Orçun and Yılmaz, Ahmet (2012): Türkiye Ekonomisinde Finansal Serbestleşme Döneminde Uluslararası Sermaye Girişi - Büyüme İlişkisi. Published in: İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi (Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences) , Vol. 33, No. 2 (December 2012): pp. 47-66.

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Abstract

This paper statistically investigates the economic growth – international capital nexus in Turkey. Firstly, the descriptive similarities between the empirical distributions of the economic growth and international capital inflows time series in Turkey are reported and the equality of the distributions of these two time series is formally tested. It is shown that the equality of the distributions of these two time series cannot be rejected. Secondly, the causality between the growth and capital inflows is questioned. Results indicate that the capital inflows Granger cause growth in Turkey. Finally, with a model allowing for dynamic interaction between growth and capital inflows, it is shown that the variations in Turkish economic growth can be explained to a high degree by the shocks to the international capital inflows. These findings are indicative for two things: (i) Turkish economic growth became extremely dependent on the international capital inflows and that calls for a need to diversify the sources that Turkey finances her growth and (ii) for the sake of sustainable and low-volatility growth, Turkey has to restructure her growth financing.

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