Hirshleifer, David (2001): Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing. Published in: Journal of Finance , Vol. 56, No. 4 (August 2001): pp. 1533-1597.
Preview |
PDF
MPRA_paper_5300.pdf Download (523kB) | Preview |
Abstract
The basic paradigm of asset pricing is in vibrant flux. The purely rational approach is being subsumed by a broader approach based upon the psychology of investors. In this approach, security expected returns are determined by both risk and misvaluation. This survey sketches a framework for understanding decision biases, evaluates the a priori arguments and the capital market evidence bearing on the importance of investor psychology for security prices, and reviews recent models.
Item Type: | MPRA Paper |
---|---|
Institution: | Fisher College of Business, The Ohio State University |
Original Title: | Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing |
Language: | English |
Keywords: | investor psychology; asset pricing; behavioral finance; behavioral economics; anomalies; misvaluation; risk; decision biases; emotions; decision bias; arbitrage; capital markets |
Subjects: | G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets > G11 - Portfolio Choice ; Investment Decisions G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets > G12 - Asset Pricing ; Trading Volume ; Bond Interest Rates G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets > G14 - Information and Market Efficiency ; Event Studies ; Insider Trading |
Item ID: | 5300 |
Depositing User: | Professor David Hirshleifer |
Date Deposited: | 13 Oct 2007 |
Last Modified: | 26 Sep 2019 09:19 |
References: | Abarbanell, J. S., and B. J. Bushee, 1998, Abnormal returns to a fundamental strategy, Accounting Review 73, 19-45. Abel, A. B., 1990, Asset prices under habit formation and catching up with the Joneses, American Economic Review 80, 38-42. Aggarwal, R., S. Mohanty, and F. Song, 1995, Are survey forecasts of macroeconomic variables rational?, Journal of Business 68, 99-119. Ahn, D.-H., J. S. Conrad, and R. F. Dittmar, 2000, Risk adjustment and trading strategies, Working paper, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Ainslie, G., 1975, Specious reward: A behavioral theory of impulsiveness and impulse control, Psychological Bulletin 82, 463-496. Allais, M., 1953, La psychologie de l'homme rationnel devant le risque: critique des postulats et axiomes de l'ecole americaine, Econometrica 21, 503-46. Allen, F., 2001, Do Financial institutions matter?, Journal of Finance 56. Allen, F., and D. Gale, 1994, Limited market participation and volatility of asset prices, American Economic Review 84, 933-955. Allport, G. W., and L. J. Postman, 1947, The psychology of rumor (Holt, New York). Alpert, M., and H. Rai a, 1982, A progress report on the training of probability assessors, in Daniel Kahneman, Paul Slovic, and Amos Tversky, ed.: Judgement under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge). Anderson, T. W., 1932, Remembering: A study in experimental and social psychology (Cambridge University Press, London York). Andrade, G. M., 1999, Do appearances matter? The impact of eps accretion and dilution on stock prices, Harvard University Working Paper. Andreassen, P. B., and S. J. Kraus, 1990, Judgemental extrapolation and the salience of change, Journal of Forecasting 9, 347-372. Ang, A., G. Bekaert, and J. Liu, 2000, Why stocks may disappoint, Working paper, Columbia Business School. Argote, L., M. Turner, and M. Fichman, 1988, To centralize or not to centralize: the effects of uncertainty and threat on group structurre and performance, Organizational Behavior 42, 1-17. Arkes, H., L. Herren, and A. Isen, 1988, The role of potential loss in the influence of affect on risk-taking behavior, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 66, 228-236. Arkes, H. R., and C. Blumer, 1985, The psychology of sunk costs, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 35, 124-140. Asch, S., 1956, Studies of independence and conformity: A minority of one against a unanimous majority, Psychological Monographs 70 Whole No. 416. Ashton, R. H., 1976, Cognitive changes induced by accounting changes: Experimental evidence on the functional fixation hypothesis, Journal of Accounting Research 14, 1. Avery, C., and J. Chevalier, 1999, Identifying investor sentiment from price paths: The case of football betting, Journal of Business 72, 493-521. Avery, C., and P. Zemsky, 1998, Multi-dimensional uncertainty and herd behavior in financial markets, American Economic Review 88, 724-48. Ball, R., 1978, Anomalies in relationships between securities' yields and yield-surrogates, Journal of Financial Economics 6, 103-126. Ball, R., and S. P. Kothari, 1989, Non-stationary expected returns: Implications for tests of market efficiency and serial correlations of returns, Journal of Financial Economics 25, 51-74. Ball, R., S. P. Kothari, and J. Shanken, 1995, Problems in measuring portfolio performance: An application to contrarian investment strategies, Journal of Financial Economics 38, 79-107. Balvers, R., Y. Wu, and E. Gilliland, 2000, Mean reversion across national stock markets and parametric contrarian investment strategies, Journal of Finance 55, 745 - 772. Banerjee, A., 1992, A simple model of herd behavior, Quarterly Journal of Economics 107, 797-817. Banerjee, A., and D. Fudenberg, 1999, Word-of-mouth communication and social learn- ing, Harvard University Working Paper. Banz, R. W., 1981, The relationship between return and the market value of common stocks, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 14, 421-441. Bar-Hillel, M., and E. Neter, 1996,Why are people reluctant to exchange lottery tickets?, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 70, 17-27. Barber, B., R. Lehavy, M. McNichols, and B. Trueman, 2001, Can investors profit from the prophets? Consensus analyst recommendations and stock returns, Journal of Finance. Barber, B., and T. Odean, 1999, Online investors: Do the slow die first?, UC Davis. Barber, B., and T. Odean, 2000a, Boys will be boys: Gender, overconfidence, and common stock investment, Quarterly Journal of Economics, forthcoming. Barber, B., and T. Odean, 2000b, Trading is hazardous to your wealth: The common stock investment performance of individual investors, Journal of Finance 55, 773-806. Barberis, N., and M. Huang, 2000, Mental accounting, loss aversion, and individual stock returns, University of Chicago Manuscript. Barberis, N., M. Huang, and J. Santos, 2001, Prospect theory and asset prices, forthcoming Quarterly Journal of Economics. Barberis, N., A. Shleifer, and R. Vishny, 1998, A model of investor sentiment, Journal of Financial Economics 49, 307-343. Barkham, R., and D. Geltner, 1995, Price discovery in american and british property markets, Real Estate Economics 23, 21-44. Barkow, J. H., L. Cosmides, and J. Tooby, 1992, The Adapted Mind: Evolutionary Psychology and the Generation of Culture (Oxford University Press, New York). Barone, M., P. Miniard, and J. Romeo, 2000, The influence of positive mood on brand extension evaluations, Journal of Consumer Research 26, 386-400. Bartov, E., F. W. Lindahl, and W. E. Ricks, 1998, Stock price behavior around announcements of writeoffs, Review of Accounting Studies 3, 327-346. Basu, S., 1983, The relationship between earnings yield, market value, and return for NYSE common stocks: Further evidence, Journal of Financial Economics 12, 126- 156. Batchelor, R., and P. Dua, 1992, Conservatism and consensus-seeking among economic forecasters, Journal of Forecasting 11, 169-181. Bekaert, G., R. J. Hodrick, and D. Marshall, 1997a, The implications of first-order risk aversion for asset market risk premiums, Journal of Monetary Economics 40, 3-39. Bekaert, G., R. J. Hodrick, and D. Marshall, 1997b, `peso problem' explanations for term structure anomalies, NBER Working Paper No. W6147. Bem, D. J., 1972, Self-perception theory, in L. Berkowitz, ed.: Advances in Experimental Social Psychology 6, 1-62 (Academic Press, New York). Benartzi, S., 1997, Excessive extrapolation and the allocation of 401(k) accounts to company stock, Journal of Finance. Benartzi, S., and R. Thaler, 1995, Myopic loss aversion and the equity premium puzzle, Quarterly Journal of Economics 110, 75-92. Benartzi, S., and R. H. Thaler, 2001, Naive diversification strategies in retirement saving plans, American Economic Review. Benos, A., 1998, Aggressiveness and survival of overconfident traders, Journal of Financial Markets 1, 353-83. Berk, J., 1995, A critique of size related anomalies, Review of Financial Studies 8, 275-286. Bernard, V. L., and J. K. Thomas, 1989, Post-earnings-announcement drift: Delayed price response or risk premium?, Journal of Accounting Research, Supplement 27, 1-48. Bernard, V. L., and J. K. Thomas, 1990, Evidence that stock prices do not fully reflect the implications of current earnings for future earnings, Journal of Accounting and Economics 13, 305-340. Bernardo, A., and I. Welch, 2000, On the evolution of overconfidence and entrepreneurs, UCLA Working Paper #9-97. Berscheid, E., and H. Reis, 1998, Attraction and close relationships, in S. Fiske D. Gilbert, and G. Lindzey, ed.: The Handbook of Social Psychology, 4rth edition 2, 193-281 (McGraw Hill, New York). Bhandari, L. C., 1988, Debt/equity ratios and expected common stock returns: Empir- ical evidence, Journal of Finance 43, 507-528. Bikhchandani, S., D. Hirshleifer, and I. Welch, 1992, A theory of fads, fashion, custom, and cultural change as informational cascades, Journal of Political Economy 100, 992-1026. Bjerring, J. H., J. Lakonishok, and T. Vermaelen, 1983, Stock prices and financial ana- lysts' recommentations, Journal of Finance 38, 187-204. Black, F., M. Jensen, and M. Scholes, 1972, The capital asset pricing model: Some empirical tests, in Michael C. Jensen, ed.: Studies in the Theory of Capital Markets pp. 79-121 (Praeger, New York). Bloomfield, R., 1996, Quotes, prices and estimates of value in a laboratory market, Journal of Finance 51, 1791-1808. Bloomfield, R., and J. Hales, 2001, Predicting the next step of a random walk: Experimental evidence of regime-shifting biases, Johnson School, Cornell University. Bloomfield, R., J. Hales, R. Libby, and M. Nelson, 2001, The effect of information, strength and weight on behavior in financial markets, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, forthcoming. Bloomfield, R., R. Libby, and M. Nelson, 1999, Confidence and the welfare of less- informed investors, Accounting, Organization and Society 24, 623-647. Bloomfield, R., R. Libby, and M. Nelson, 2000, Underreactions, overreactions and moderated confidence, Journal of Financial Markets 3, 113-137. Blume, L., and D. Easley, 1982, Learning to be rational, Journal of Economic Theory 26, 340-351. Blume, L., and D. Easley, 1990, Evolution and market behavior, Journal of Economic Theory 58, 9-40. Blume, L. E., and D. Easley, 2000, If you're so smart, why aren't you rich? belief selection in complete and incomplete markets, Working paper, Department of Economics, Cornell University. Bodurtha, J., D.-S. Kim, and C. M. C. Lee, 1995, Closed-end country funds and U.S. market sentiment, Review of Financial Studies 8, 879-918. Boehme, R., and S. M. Sorescu, 2000, Seven decades of long term abnormal return persistence: The case of dividend initiations and resumptions, University of Houston Working Paper. Boldrin, M., L. Christiano, and J. Fisher, 1997, Asset pricing lessons for modeling business cycles, unpublished manuscript. Bond, R., and P. Smith, 1996, Culture and conformity: A meta-analysis of studies using aschs (1952b, 1956) line judgement task, Psychological Bulletin 119, 111-137. Bornstein, R., and P. D'Agostino, 1992, Stimulus recognition and the mere exposure effect, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 63, 545-552. Bossaerts, P., 2000, Experiments with financial markets: Implications for asset pricing theory, Cal Tech Working Paper. Bossaerts, P., and P. Hillion, 1999, Implementing statistical criteria to select return forecasting models: what do we learn?, Review of Financial Studiess 12, 405-428. Bossaerts, P., C. Plott, and W. Zame, 2000, Prices and allocations in financial markets: Theory and evidence, Cal Tech Working Paper. Brav, A., C. Geczy, and P. A. Gompers, 2000, Is the abnormal return following equity issuances anomalous?, Journal of Financial Economics 56, 209-249. Brennan, M., 2001, Mental accounting, loss aversion, and individual stock returns: Discussion, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA. Brennan, M., T. Chordia, and A. Subrahmanyam, 1998, Alternative factor specifications, security characteristics and the cross-section of expected stock returns, Journal of Financial Economics 49, 345-373. Brennan, M., and Y. Xia, 2001, Stock price volatility and the equity premium, Journal of Monetary Economics forthcoming. Brenner, L. A., D. J. Koehler, V. Liberman, and A. Tversky, 1996, Overconfidence in probability and frequency judgments: A critical examination, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 65, 212-219. Brenner, L. A., D. J. Koehler, and A. Tversky, 1996, On the evaluation of one-sided evidence, Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 9, 59-70. Brown, S. J., W. N. Goetzmann, and S. A. Ross, 1995, Survival, Journal of Finance 50, 853-873. Bruner, J., L. Postman, and J. Rodrigues, 1951, Expectations and the perception of color, American Journal of Psychology 64, 216-227. Camerer, C., 1995, Individual decision making, in John H. Kagel, and Alvin E. Roth, ed.: The Handbook of Experimental Economics pp. 587-703 (Princeton University Press). Camerer, C. F., 1991, The process-performance paradox in expert judgment: How can experts know so much and predict so badly?, in K. A. Ericsson, and J. Smith, ed.: Towards a general theory of expertise: Prospects and Limits pp. 195-217 (Cambridge University Press, New York). Camerer, C. F., 1998, Bounded rationality in individual decision making, Experimental Economics 1, 163-183. Camerer, C. F., G. Loewenstein, and M. Weber, 1989, The curse of knowledge in eco- nomic settings: An experimental analysis, Journal of Political Economy 97, 1232- 1254. Campbell, J., 1999, Asset prices, consumption, and the business cycle, in John B. Taylor, and Michael Woodford, ed.: Handbook of Macroeconomics (Amsterdam: North Holland). Campbell, J. Y., 1987, Stock returns and the term structure, Journal of Financial Eco- nomics 18, 373-399. Campbell, J. Y., 2000, Asset pricing at the millenium, Journal of Finance. Campbell, J. Y., and J. H. Cochrane, 1999, By force of habit: A consumption based explanation of aggregate stock market behavior, Journal of Political Economy 107, 205-251. Campbell, J. Y., and A. S. Kyle, 1993, Smart money, noise trading, and stock price behaviour, Review of Economic Studies 60, 1-34. Campbell, J. Y., and R. J. Shiller, 1988a, The dividend-price ratio and expectations of future dividends and discount factors, Review of Financial Studies 1, 195-228. Campbell, J. Y., and R. J. Shiller, 1988b, Stock prices, earnings, and expected dividends, Journal of Finance 43, 661-676. Campbell, J. Y., and R. J. Shiller, 1991, Yield spreads and interest rates: A bird's eye view, Review of Economic Studies 58, 495-514. Cao, H. H., and D. Hirshleifer, 2000, Conversation, learning and informational cascades, Ohio State University Fisher College of Business Working Paper. Carmel, J. P., and M. Young, 1997, Long horizon mean reversion in the stock market: The postwar years, Working paper, University of Michigan Business School. Case, K. E., and R. Shiller, 1990, The behavior of home buyers in boom and post-boom markets, New England Economic Review 80, 29-46. Cecchetti, S. G., P.-S. Lam, and N. C. Mark, 1999, Asset pricing with distorted beliefs: Are equity returns `too good to be true?', American Economic Review, forthcoming. Chan, K., 1988, On the contrarian investment strategy, Journal of Business 61, 147-163. Chan, K., and N.-F. Chen, 1991, Structural and return characteristics of small and large firms, Journal of Finance 46, 1467-1484. Chan, K., A. Hameed, and W. Tong, 2000, Profitability of momentum strategies in the international equity markets, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 35, 153-172. Chan, K., N. Jegadeesh, and J. Lakonishok, 2000, Earnings quality and stock returns: The evidence from accruals, University of Illinois. Chan, L., Y. Hamao, and J. Lakonishok, 1991, Fundamental and stock returns in japan, Journal of Finance 46, 1739-1764. Chan, L. K., N. Jegadeesh, and J. Lakonishok, 1996, Momentum strategies, Journal of Finance 51, 1681-1714. Chan, L. K., J. Lakonishok, and T. Sougiannis, 1999, The stock market valuation of research and development expenditures, NBER Working Paper #7223, July. Chan, Y. L., and L. Kogan, 2000, Catching up with the joneses: Heterogeneous prefernces and the dynamics of asset prices, Wharton School #14-00. Chang, C., Z. Chen, andM. Dong, 1999, Investing with a stock valuation model,Working paper, Ohio State University and Yale University. Chapman, G. B., 1998, Sooner or later: The psychology of intertemporal choice, in Douglas L. Medin, ed.: The Psychology of Learning and Motivation 38, 83-113 (Academic Press, San Diego, CA). Chapman, G. B., and E. J. Johnson, 1999, Anchoring, activation, and the construction of values, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 79, 115-153. Chen, J., 2000, Can the intertemporal capm explain the cross-section of stock returns, Stanford University working paper. Chen, N.-F., and F. Zhang, 1998, Risk and return of value stocks, Journal of Business 71, 501-535. Choe, H., B.-C. Kho, and R. M. Stulz, 1999, Do foreign investors destabilize stock markets? the korean experience in 1997, Journal of Financial Economics 54, 227- 264. Chopra, N., J. Lakonishok, and J. R. Ritter, 1992, Measuring abnormal performance: Do stocks overreact?, Journal of Financial Economics 31, 235-268. Chordia, T., R. Roll, and A. Subrahmanyam, 2000, Order imbalance, liquidity, and market returns, UCLA working paper. Chordia, T., and L. Shivakumar, 2000, Momentum, business cycle and time varying expected returns, Emory University Working Paper. Clore, G. L., N. Schwarz, and M. Conway, 1994, Affective causes and consequences of social information processing, in Jr. Robert S. Wyer, and Thomas K. Srull, ed.: Handbook of Social Cognition, 2nd edition (Lawrence Erlbaum, Hillsdale, NJ). Clotfelter, C. T., and P. J. Cook, 1993, The `gambler's fallacy' in lottery play, Management Science 39, 93-95. Cochrane, J. H., 1991, Volatility tests and efficient markets: Review essay, Journal of Monetary Economics 27, 463-485. Cochrane, J. H., 2000, Asset Pricing (Princeton University Press, NJ). Cohen, J. B., and C. S. Areni, 1991, Affect and consumer behavior, in Thomas S. Robertson, and Harold H. Kassarjian, ed.: Handbook of Consumer Behavior pp. 188- 240 (Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ). Cohen, R. B., C. K. Polk, and T. Vuolteenaho, 2000, The value spread, University of Chicago working paper. Conlisk, J., 1996, Why bounded rationality?, Journal of Economic Literature 34, 669- 700. Constantinides, G. M., 1990, Habit formation: A resolution of the equity premium puzzle, Journal of Political Economy 98, 519-543. Constantinides, G. M., J. B. Donaldson, and R. Mehra, 2000, Junior can't borrow: A new perspective on the equity premium puzzle, Columbia University Working Paper. Constantinides, G. M., and D. DuÆe, 1996, Asset pricing with heterogeneous consumers, Journal of Political Economy 104, 219-240. Cooper, I., and E. Kaplanis, 1994, Home bias in equity portfolios, inflation hedging, and international capital market equilibrium, Review of Financial Studies 7, 45-60. Cooper, J., and R. H. Fazio, 1984, A new look at dissonance theory, in L. Berkowitz, ed.: Advances in experimental social psychology 17, 229-264 (Academic Press, Orlando, FL). Cooper, M. J., O. Dimitrov, and P. R. Rau, 2000, A rose.com by any other name, Journal of Finance, forthcoming. Cornell, B., and Q. Liu, 2000, The parent company puzzle: When is the whole worth less than one of its parts?, Anderson School Working Paper #7-00, UCLA. Cornett, M. M., H. Mehran, and H. Tehranian, 1998, Are financial markets overly optimistic about the prospects of firms that issue equity? Evidence from voluntary versus involuntary equity issuance by banks, Journal of Finance 53. Cosmides, L., and J. Tooby, 1996, Are humans good intuitive statisticians after all? rethinking some conclusions from the literature on judgment under uncertainty, Cognition 58, 1-73. Coval, J. D., and T. J. Moskowitz, 1999, Home bias at home: Local equity preference in domestic portfolios, Journal of Finance 54, 145-166. Coval, J. D., and T. Shumway, 2000, Do behavioral biases affect prices?, University of Michigan Business School. Crocker, J., 1982, Biased questions in judgement of covariation studies, Personality and Social Pscychology Bulletin 8, 214-220. Cusatis, P., J. Miles, and J. Woolridge, 1993, Restructuring through spinoffs the stock market evidence, Journal of Financial Economics 33, 293-311. Cutler, D. M., J. M. Poterba, and L. H. Summers, 1989, What moves stock prices?, Journal of Portfolio Management 15, 4-12. Cutler, D. M., J. M. Poterba, and L. H. Summers, 1990, Speculative dynamics and the role of feedback traders, American Economic Review 80, 63-68. Cutler, D. M., J. M. Poterba, and L. H. Summers, 1991, Speculative dynamics, Review of Economic Studies 58, 529-546. Daniel, K. D., D. Hirshleifer, and A. Subrahmanyam, 1998, Investor psychology and security market under- and over-reactions, Journal of Finance 53, 1839-1886. Daniel, K. D., D. Hirshleifer, and A. Subrahmanyam, 2001a, Covariance risk, mispricing, and the cross section of security returns, Journal of Finance 56 forthcoming. Daniel, K. D., D. Hirshleifer, and A. Subrahmanyam, 2001b, Discriminating between efficient and inefficient markets theories of cross-sectional return predictability, Working Paper, Northwestern University. Daniel, K. D., and S. Titman, 1997, Evidence on the characteristics of cross-sectional variation in common stock returns, Journal of Finance 52, 1-33. Daniel, K. D., and S. Titman, 1999, Market efficiency in an irrational world, Financial Analysts' Journal 55, 28-40. Daniel, K. D., and S. Titman, 2000, Market reactions to tangible and intangible infor- mation, Kellogg School. Daniel, K. D., S. Titman, and J. Wei, 2001, Cross-sectional variation in common stock returns in Japan, Journal of Finance. Davis, J., E. F. Fama, and K. R. French, 2000, Characteristics, covariances, and average returns: 1929-1997, Journal of Finance 55, 389-406. Davis, J. L., 1994, The cross-section of realized stock returns: The pre-COMPUSTAT evidence, Journal of Finance 50, 1579-1593. Deaux, K., and T. Emswiller, 1974, Explanations for successful performance on sex- linked tasks: What is skill for the male is luck for the female, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 29, 80-85. DeBondt, W. F. M., 1993, Betting on trends: Intuitive forecasts of financial risk and return, International Journal of Forecasting 9, 355-371. DeBondt, W. F. M., and R. H. Thaler, 1985, Does the stock market overreact?, Journal of Finance 40, 793-808. DeBondt, W. F. M., and R. H. Thaler, 1987, Further evidence on investor overreaction and stock market seasonality, Journal of Finance 42, 557-581. DeBondt, W. F. M., and R. H. Thaler, 1995, Financial decision-making in markets and firms: A behavioral perspective, in Robert A. Jarrow, Voijslav Maksimovic, and William T. Ziemba, ed.: Finance, Handbooks in Operations Research and Management Science 9, 385-410 (North Holland, Amsterdam). DeChow, P. M., and R. G. Sloan, 1997, Returns to contrarian investment strategies: Tests of naive expectations hypotheses, Journal of Financial Economics 41, 3-27. DeGeorge, F., J. Patel, and R. Zeckhauser, 1999, Earnings manipulations to exceed thresholds, Journal of Business 71, 1-34. DeLong, J. B., A. Shleifer, L. Summers, and R. J. Waldmann, 1990a, Noise trader risk In financial markets, Journal of Political Economy 98, 703-738. DeLong, J. B., A. Shleifer, L. Summers, and R. J. Waldmann, 1990b, Positive feedback investment strategies and destabilizing rational speculation, Journal of Finance 45, 375-395. DeLong, J. B., A. Shleifer, L. Summers, and R. J. Waldmann, 1991, The survival of noise traders in financial markets, Journal of Business 64, 1-20. DeMarzo, P., D. Vayanos, and J. Zwiebel, 2000, A near-rational model of persuasion - with implications for financial markets, Stanford University Business School, working paper. Denis, D., and A. Sarin, 2000, Is the market surprised by poor earnings realizations following seasoned equity offerings?, Journal of Financial Economics. Desai, H., and P. C. Jain, 1997a, Firm performance and focus- long-run stock market performance following spinoffs, Journal of Financial Economics 54, 75-101. Desai, H., and P. C. Jain, 1997b, Long-run common stock returns following stock splits and reverse splits, Journal of Business 70, 409-434. Dharan, B. G., and D. Ikenberry, 1995, The long-run negative drift of post-listing stock returns, Journal of Finance 50, 1547-1574. Dichev, I., 1998, Is the risk of bankruptcy a systematic risk?, Journal of Finance 53, 1131-1147. Dichev, I., and J. Piotroski, 2001, The long-run stock returns following bond ratings changes, Journal of Finance. Dittmar, A. K., 2000, Why do firms repurchase stock, Journal of Business 73, 321-356. D'Mello, R., and P. K. Shrof, 2000, Equity undervaluation and decisions related to repurchase tender offers: An empirical investigation, Journal of Finance 55, 2399 - 2424. Eckbo, B. E., R. W. Masulis, and O. Norli, 2000, Seasoned public o erings: Resolution of the `new issues puzzle', Journal of Financial Economics 56, 251-291. Eckbo, B. E., and O. Norli, 2000, Leverage, liquidity, and long-run ipo returns, Dartmouth College Working Paper. Edwards, W., 1968, Conservatism in human information processing, in B. Kleinmutz, ed.: Formal Representation of Human Judgement (Wiley, N.Y., NY). Einhorn, H. J., 1980, Overconfidence in judgment, New Directions for Methodology of Social and Behavioral Science 4, 1-16. Einhorn, H. J., and R. Hogarth, 1978, Confidence in judgement: Persistence in the illusion of validity, Psychological Review 85, 395-416. Ellison, G., and D. Fudenberg, 1995, Word of mouth communication and social learning, Quarterly Journal of Economics 110, 93-126. Ellsberg, D., 1961, Risk, ambiguity, and the savage axioms, Quarterly Journal of Economics 75, 643-699. Elton, E. J., M. J. Gruber, and M. N. Gultekin, 1984, Professional expectations: Accuracy and diagnosis of errors, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 19, 351-363. Engel, R., 1996, The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence, Journal of Empirical Finance 3, 123-192. Epstein, L., and S. Zin, 1989, Substitution, risk aversion, and the temporal behavior of consumption growth and asset returns I: A theoretical framework, Econometrica 57, 937-969. Epstein, L., and S. Zin, 1990, `First-order' risk aversion and the equity premium puzzle, Journal of Monetary Economics 26, 387-407. Epstein, L., and S. Zin, 1991, Substitution, risk aversion, and the temporal behavior of consumption growth and asset returns II: An empirical analysis, Journal of Political Economy 99, 263-286. Epstein, L., and S. Zin, 1993, The independence axiom and asset returns, Carnegie Mellon University. Erevelles, S., 1998, The role of affect in marketing, Journal of Business Research 42, 199-215. Fair, R., 2000, Events that shook the market, Yale University Working Paper. Fama, E. F., 1991, Efficient capital markets II, Journal of Finance 46, 1575-1643. Fama, E. F., 1998, Market efficiency, long-term returns and behavioral finance, Journal of Financial Economics 49. Fama, E. F., and R. R. Bliss, 1987, The information in long-maturity forward rates, The American Economic Review 77, 680-692. Fama, E. F., and K. R. French, 1988a, Dividend yields and expected stock returns, Journal of Financial Economics 22, 3-25. Fama, E. F., and K. R. French, 1988b, Permanent and temporary components of stock prices, Journal of Political Economy 96, 246-273. Fama, E. F., and K. R. French, 1989, Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds, Journal of Financial Economics 25, 23-49. Fama, E. F., and K. R. French, 1992, The cross-section of expected stock returns, Journal of Finance 47, 427-465. Fama, E. F., and K. R. French, 1993, Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds, Journal of Financial Economics 33, 3-56. Fama, E. F., and K. R. French, 1995, Size and book-to-market factors in earnings and returns, Journal of Finance 50, 131-156. Fama, E. F., and K. R. French, 1996a, The CAPM is wanted, dead or alive, Journal of Finance 51, 1947-1958. Fama, E. F., and K. R. French, 1996b, Multifactor explanations of asset pricing anomalies, Journal of Finance 51, 55-84. Fama, E. F., and K. R. French, 1998, Value versus growth: The international evidence, Journal of Finance 53, 1975-1999. Fama, E. F., and K. R. French, 2000, The equity premium, University of Chicago. Fama, E. F., and J. MacBeth, 1973, Risk, return and equilibrium: Empirical tests, Journal of Political Economy 81, 607-636. Farmer, J. D., 1999, Physicists attempt to scale the ivory towers of finance, Computing in Science and Engineering pp. 26-39. Farmer, J. D., and A. W. Lo, 1999, Frontiers of finance: Evolution and effcient markets, Proceedings of the National Academy of Science 96, 9991-9992. Fernandez-Villaverde, J., and A. Mukherji, 2000, Can we really observe hyperbolic discounting?, University of Minnesota Working Paper. Ferris, S. P., R. A. Haugen, and A. K. Makhija, 1988, Predicting contemporary volume with historic volume at differential price levels: Evidence supporting the disposition effect, Journal of Finance 43, 677-697. Ferson, W. E., and G. M. Constantinides, 1991, Habit persistence and durability in aggregate consumption; empirical tests, Journal of Financial Economics 29, 199-240. Festinger, L., and J. M. Carlsmith, 1959, Cognitive consequences of forced compliance, Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology 58, 203-211. Figlewski, S., 1978, Market `effciency' in a market with heterogeneous information, Journal of Political Economy 86, 581-597. Fischer, P., and R. Verrecchia, 1999, Public information and heuristic trade, Journal of Accounting and Economics pp. 89-124. Fischhoff, B., and R. Beyth-Marom, 1983, Hypothesis evaluation from a bayesian per- spective, Psychological Review 90, 239-260. Fischhoff, B., P. Slovic, and S. Lichtenstein, 1977, Knowing with certainty: the appropriateness of extreme confidence, Journal of Experimental Psychology 3, 552-564. Fischhoff, B., P. Slovic, and S. Lichtenstein, 1978, Fault trees: Sensitivity of estimated failure probabilities to problem representation, Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance 4, 330-334. Fischoff, B., 1982, For those condemned to study the past: Heuristics and biases in hindsight, in Daniel Kahneman, Paul Slovic, and Amos Tversky, ed.: Judgement under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge). Fisher, I., 1928, The Money Illusion (Adelphi Company, New York). Fisher, I., 1930, The Theory of Interest (MacMillan, New York). Foerster, S. R., and G. A. Karolyi, 1999, The effects of market segmentation and investor recognition on asset prices: Evidence from foreign stocks listing in the united states, Journal of Finance 54, 981 - 1013. Foerster, S. R., and G. A. Karolyi, 2000, The long-run performance of global equity offerings, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 35, 499-528. Forgas, J. P., 1995, Mood and judgment: The affect infusion model (aim), Psychological Bulletin 117, 39-66. Forsythe, R., F. Nelson, G. Neumann, and J. Wright, 1992, Anatomy of an experimental political stock market, American Economic Review 82, 1142-1161. Frankel, J. A., and K. A. Froot, 1986, Understanding the us dollar in the eighties: The expectations of chartists and fundamentalists, Economic Record, Supp. 62, 24-38. Frankel, J. A., and K. A. Froot, 1990, Chartists, fundamentalists, and trading in the foreign exchange market, American Economic Review 80, 181-185. Frankel, R., and C. Lee, 1998, Accounting valuation, market expectation, and the book- to-market effect, Journal of Accounting and Economics pp. 283-321. Frankel, R., and C. Lee, 1999, Accounting diversity and international valuation, Cornell University Parker Center working paper. Froot, K., and E. Dabora, 1999, How are stock prices affected by the location of trade?, Journal of Financial Economics 53, 189-216. Garber, P., 1989, Tulipmania, Journal of Political Economy 97, 535-560. Gazzaniga, M. S., 1988, Mind Matters: How Mind and Brain Interact to Create our Conscious Lives (Houghton Mifflin, Boston). Gervais, S., and T. Odean, 2001, Learning to be overconfident, Review of Financial Studies, forthcoming. Gigerenzer, G., 1991, How to make cognitive illusions disappear: Beyond `heuristics and biases', in W. Stroche, and M. Hewstone, ed.: European Review of Social Psychology 2, 83-115 (Wiley, New York). Gigerenzer, G., and U. Hoffrage, 1995, How to improve bayesian reasoning without instruction: Frequency formats, Psychological Review 102, 684-704. Gigerenzer, G., U. Hoffrage, and H. Kleinbolting, 1991, Probabilistic mental models: A brunswikian theory of confidence, Psychological Review 98, 506-528. Gigerenzer, G., U. Hoffrage, and H. Kleinbolting, 1996, On narrow norms and vague heuristics: A reply to kahneman and tversky, Psychological Review 103, 592-596. Gigerenzer, G., P. Todd, and ABC-Group, 1999, Simple Heuristics that Make Us Smart (Oxford University Press, New York, N.Y.). Gilboa, I., and D. Schmeidler, 1995, Case-based decision theory, Quarterly Journal of Economics 110, 605-639. Gilovich, T. R., 1981, Seeing the past in the present: The effect of associations to familiar events on judgments and decisions, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 40, 797-808. Gilovich, T. R., 1991, How We Know What Isn't So: The Fallibility of Human Reason in Everyday Life (Free Press, New York). Gilovich, T. R., R. Vallone, and A. Tversky, 1985, The hot hand in basketball: On the misperception of random sequences, Cognitive Psychology 17, 592-596. Goetzmann, W. N., R. G. Ibbotson, and L. Peng, 2001, A new historical database for the nyse 1815 to 1925: Performance and predictability, Journal of Financial Markets 4, 1-32. Gomes, F., 2000, Loss aversion and the demand for risky assets, London Business School, working paper. Gompers, P., and J. Lerner, 1998, Venture capital distributions: Short-run and long-run reactions, Journal of Finance. Gompers, P., and J. Lerner, 2000, The really long-run performance of initial public offerings: the pre-nasdaq evidence, Harvard University Working Paper. Goyal, A., and I. Welch, 1999, The myth of predictability: Does the dividend yield orecast the equity premium?, Anderson School, UCLA. Grether, D. M., 1980, Bayes' rule as a descriptive model: The representativeness heuristic, Quarterly Journal of Economics 95, 537-557. Grether, D. M., 1992, Testing bayes rule and the representativeness heuristic: Some experimental evidence, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 17, 31-57. Grether, D. M., and C. R. Plott, 1979, Economic theory of choice and the preference reversal phenomenon, American Economic Review 69, 623-638. Griffin, D., and A. Tversky, 1992, The weighing of evidence and the determinants of overconfidence, Cognitive Psychology 24, 411-435. Griffin, J. M., and M. L. Lemon, 2001, Does book-to-market equity proxy for distress or overreacton?, University of Arizona. Grinblatt, M., and M. Keloharju, 2000, The investment behavior and performance of various investor types: a study of Finland's unique data set, Journal of Financial Economics 55, 43-67. Grinblatt, M., and M. Keloharju, 2001a, How distance, language and culture influence stockholdings and trades, Journal of Finance. Grinblatt, M., and M. Keloharju, 2001b, What makes investors trade?, Journal of Finance. Grinblatt, M., R. W. Masulis, and S. Titman, 1984, The valuation effects of stock splits and stock dividends, Journal of Financial Economics 13, 97-112. Grinblatt, M., and T. Moskowitz, 1999, The cross-section of expected returns and its relation to past returns: New evidence, UCLA Anderson School working paper #24- 99. Grinblatt, M., S. Titman, and R. Wermers, 1995, Momentum investment strategies, portfolio performance, and herding: A study of mutual fund behavior, American Economic Review 85, 1088-1105. Groth, J. C., W. G. Lewellen, G. C. Scharbaum, and R. C. Lease, 1979, An analysis of brokerage house securities recommendations, Financial Analysts' Journal 35, 32-40. Grundy, B., and J. S. Martin, 2001, Understanding the nature of the risks and the source of the rewards to momentum investing, Review of Financial Studies 14, 29-78. Gul, F., 1991, A theory of disappointment aversion, Econometrica 59, 667-686. Gyourko, J., and D. B. Keim, 1992, What does the stock market tell us about real estate returns?, Journal of the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association 20, 457-485. Hand, J. R. M., 1990, A test of the extended functional fixation hypothesis, Accounting Review 65, 740-63. Hand, J. R. M., 1991, Extended functional fixation and security returns around earnings announcements: A reply to ball and kothari, Accounting Review 66, 739-46. Handa, P., S. P. Kothari, and C. Wasley, 1993, Sensitivity of multivariate tests of the capital asset-pricing model to the return measurement interval, Journal of Finance 48, 1543-1551. Hansen, L., T. J. Sargent, and T. D. Tallarini, 1999, Robust permanent income and pricing, Review of Economic Studies 66, 873 - 907. Hansen, L. P., and R. Jagannathan, 1991, Implications of security market data for models of dynamic economies, Journal of Political Economy 99, 225-262. Hansen, L. P., and K. J. Singleton, 1983, Stochastic consumption, risk aversion, and the temporal behavior of asset returns, Journal of Political Economy 91, 249-265. Harmon-Jones, E., and J. Mills, 1999, An introduction to cognitive dissonance theory and an overview of current perspectives on the theory, in Eddie Harmon-Jones, and Judson Mills, ed.: Cognitive Dissonance: Progress on a Pivotal Theory in Social Psychology (American Psychological Association). Harris, C., and D. Laibson, 2001, Dynamic choices of hyperbolic consumers, Econometrica, forthcoming. Harvey, C., 1989, The world price of covariance risk, Journal Finance 46, 111-157. Haugen, R. A., and N. L. Baker, 1996, Commonality in the determinants of expected stock returns, Journal of Financial Economics 41, 401-439. Hawawini, G., and D. B. Keim, 1995, On the predictability of common stock returns: World-Wide evidence, in Robert A. Jarrow, Voijslav Maksimovic, and William T. Ziemba, ed.: Finance, Handbooks in Operations Research and Management Science and Management Science pp. 497-544 (North Holland, Amsterdam). Hawawini, G., and D. B. Keim, 2000, The cross section of common stock returns: A review of the evidence and some new findings, in Gabriel Hawawini, Donald B. Keim, and William T. Ziemba, ed.: Security Market Imperfections in World Wide Equity Markets (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK). Hawawini, G., D. B. Keim, and W. T. Ziemba, 2000, Security Market Imperfections in World Wide Equity Markets (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK). Hawkins, S. A., and R. Hastie, 1990, Hindsight: Biased judgements of past events after the outcomes are known, Psychological Bulletin 107, 311-327. Heath, C., and A. Tversky, 1991, Preferences and beliefs: Ambiguity and competence in choice under uncertainty, Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 4, 5-28. Heaton, J. C., 1995, An empirical investigation of asset pricing with temporally dependent preference specifications, Econometrica 63, 681-717. Heaton, J. C., and D. J. Lucas, 1996, Evaluating the effects of incomplete markets on risk-sharing and asset pricing, Journal of Political Economy 104, 443-487. Hertwig, R., and A. Ortmann, 2001, Experimental practices in economics: A challenge for psychologists?, Behavioral and Brain Sciences, forthcoming 24. Hertzel, M., M. L. Lemmon, J. S. Linck, and L. Rees, 1999, Long-run performance following private placements of equity, Working Paper. Heston, S. L., K. G. Rouwenhorst, and R. E.Wessels, 1995, The structure of international stock returns and the integration of capital markets, Journal of Empirical Finance 2, 173-197. Heston, S. L., K. G. Rouwenhorst, and R. E. Wessels, 1999, The role of beta and size in the cross-section of european stock returns, European Financial Management 4, 4-28. Higgins, E., 1996, Knowledge activation: Accessibility, applicability, and salience, in E.T. Higgins, and A.W. Kruglanski, ed.: Social Psychology: Handbook of Basic Principles pp. 133-168 (Guilford, New York). Hirshleifer, D., and G. Y. Luo, 2001, On the survival of overconfident traders in a competitive security market, Journal of Financial Markets 4, 73-84. Hirshleifer, D., and T. Shumway, 2000, Good day sunshine: Stock returns and the weather, Ohio State University Working Paper. Hirshleifer, D., and S. H. Teoh, 2001, Investor psychology in capital markets: Evidence and policy implications, Ohio State University, in progress. Hirshleifer, D., and I. Welch, 2000, An economic approach to the psychology of change: Amnesia, inertia, and impulsiveness, Ohio State University Working Paper. Ho, T., and R. Michaely, 1988, Information quality and market efficiency, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 5, 357-386. Hodrick, R. J., 1992, Dividend yields and expected stock returns: Alternative procedures for inference and measurement, Review of Financial Studies 5, 357-386. Hong, H., T. Lim, and J. Stein, 2000, Bad news travels slowly: Size, analyst coverage and the profitability of momentum strategies, Journal of Finance 55, 265-295. Hong, H., and J. C. Stein, 1999, A unified theory of underreaction, momentum trading and overreaction in asset markets, Journal of Finance 54, 2143-2184. Huberman, G., 1999, Familiarity breeds investment, Columbia University Working Paper, 97-04. Huberman, G., and T. Regev, 2001, Contagious speculation and a cure for cancer, Journal of Finance. Hvidkjaer, S., 2000, A trade-based analysis of momentum, Johnson School of Management, Working Paper. Ikenberry, D., J. Lakonishok, and T. Vermaelen, 1995, Market underreaction to open market share repurchases, Journal of Financial Economics 39, 181-208. Ikenberry, D., J. Lakonishok, and T. Vermaelen, 2000, Stock repurchases in canada: Performance and strategic trading, Journal of Finance 55, 2373-2397. Ikenberry, D., and S. Ramnath, 2000, Underreaction, Rice University Working Paper. Ikenberry, D., G. Rankine, and E. K. Stice, 1996, What do stock splits really signal?, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 31, 357-375. Isenberg, D. J., 1986, Group polarization: A critical review and meta-analysis, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 50, 1141-1151. Jagannathan, R., K. Kubota, and H. Takehara, 1998, Relationship between labor-income risk and average return: Empirical evidence from the Japanese stock market, Journal of Business 71, 319-348. Jagannathan, R., and Z. Wang, 1996, The CAPM is alive and well, Journal of Finance 51, 3-53. Jegadeesh, N., 1991, Seasonality in stock price mean reversion: Evidence from the U.S. and the U.K., Journal of Finance 46, 1427-1444. Jegadeesh, N., 1999, Long-run performance of seasoned equity offerings: Benchmark errors and biases in expectations, University of Illinois Working Paper. Jegadeesh, N., and S. Titman, 1993, Returns to buying winners and selling losers: Implications for stock market eÆciency, Journal of Finance 48, 65-91. Jegadeesh, N., and S. Titman, 1995, Overreaction, delayed reaction, and contrarian profits, Review of Financial Studies 8, 973-999. Jenkins, H. M., and W. C. Ward, 1965, Judgement of contingency between responses and outcomes, Psychological Monographs 79, 1-17. Jindra, J., 2000, Seasoned equity offerings, overvaluation and timing, Ohio State University. Josephs, R., R. P. Larrick, C. M. Steele, and R. E. Nisbett, 1996, Protecting the self from the negative consequences of risky decisions, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 62, 26-37. Kahneman, D., J. L. Knetsch, and R. H. Thaler, 1991, The endowment effect, loss aversion, and status quo bias: Anomalies, Journal of Economic Perspectives 5, 193- 206. Kahneman, D., and D. Lovallo, 1993, Timid choices and bold forecasts: A cognitive perspective on risk taking, Management Science 39, 17-31. Kahneman, D., and A. Tversky, 1973, On the psychology of prediction, Psychological Review 80, 237-25l. Kahneman, D., and A. Tversky, 1979, Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk, Econometrica 47, 263-291. Kahneman, D., and A. Tversky, 1982, The psychology of preferences, Scientific American 246, 160-173. Kahneman, D., and A. Tversky, 1996, On the reality of cognitive illusions: A reply to gigerenzer's critique, Psychological Review 103, 582-591. Kamstra, M. J., L. A. Kramer, and M. D. Levi, 2000a, Losing sleep at the market: The daylight-savings anomaly, American Economic Review, forthcoming 12, 1005-1000. Kamstra, M. J., L. A. Kramer, and M. D. Levi, 2000b, Winter blues: Seasonal affective disorder (sad), the january effect, and stock market returns, Faculty of Commerce, University of British Columbia Working Paper. Kang, J.-K., Y.-C. Kim, and R. M. Stulz, 1999, The underreaction hypothesis and the new issue puzzle: Evidence from Japan, Review of Financial Studies 12, 519-534. Kang, J.-K., and R. M. Stulz, 1997, The underreaction hypothesis and the new issue puzzle: Evidence from Japan, Journal of Financial Economics 46, 3-28. Keane, M. P., and D. E. Runkle, 1990, Testing the rationality of price forecasts: New evidence from panel data, American Economic Review 80, 714-735. Keim, D. B., 1988, Stock market regularities: A synthesis of the evidence and explanations, in Elroy Dimson, ed.: Stock Market Anomalies (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge). Keim, D. B., and R. F. Stambaugh, 1986, Predicting returns in the stock and bond markets, Journal of Financial Economics 17, 357-390. Keren, G., 1991, Calibration and probability judgments: Conceptual and methodological issues, Acta Psychologica 77, 217-273. Keynes, J. M., 1936, The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money (Macmillan, London). Kim, D., 1997, A reexamination of firm size, book-to-market, and earnings price in the cross-section of expected stock returns, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 32, 463-489. Kim, M.-J., C. R. Nelson, and R. Startz, 1988, Mean reversion in stock prices? A reappraisal of the empirical evidence, Review of Economic Studies 58, 551-528. Kirby, K., and R. J. Herrnstein, 1995, Preference reversals due to myopic discounting of delayed reward, Psychological Science 6, 83-89. Klayman, J., and Y. Ha, 1987, Confirmation, disconfirmation and information in hypothesis testing, Psychological Review 94, 211-228. Kleidon, A. W., 1986, Anomalies in financial economics: Blueprint for change?, Journal of Business 59, S469-S499. Klibanoff, P., O. Lamont, and T. A. Wizman, 1999, Investor reaction to salient news in closed-end country funds, Journal of Finance 53, 673-699. Knez, P., V. L. Smith, and A. Williams, 1985, Individual rationality, market rationality, and value estimation, American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings 52, 397- 402. Knez, P. J., and M. J. Ready, 1997, On the robustness of size and book-to-market in cross-sectional regressions, Journal of Finance 52, 1355-1382. Kocherlakota, N. R., 1996, The equity premium: It's still a puzzle, Journal of Economic Literature 34, 42-71. Koehler, J. J., 1996, The base rate fallacy reconsidered: Normative, descriptive and methodological challenges, Behavioral and Brain Sciences 19, 1-53. Korajczyk, R. A., D. J. Lucas, and R. L. McDonald, 1991, The effect of information releases on the pricing and timing of equity issues, Review of Financial Studies 4, 685-708. Kothari, S., 2000, Capital market research in accounting, MIT Sloan School Working Paper. Kothari, S., and J. Shanken, 1997, Book-to-market, dividend yield, and expected market returns: A time-series analysis, Journal of Financial Economics 44, 169-203. Kothari, S., and J. Shanken, 2000, Beta and book-to-market: Is the glass half full or half empty?, in Security Market Imperfections in World Wide Equity Markets pp. 44-64 (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge). Kothari, S., J. Shanken, and R. Sloan, 1995, Another look at the cross-section of expected returns, Journal of Finance 50, 185-224. Kraus, A., and J. S. Sagi, 2000, Inter-temporal flexibility preferences, Haas School of Business, University of California, Berkeley. Krische, S. D., and C. M. Lee, 2000, The information content of analyst stock recommendations, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University Working Paper. Kroll, Y., and H. Levy, 1992, Further tests of the separation theorem and the capital asset pricing model, American Economic Review 82, 664-670. Kroll, Y., H. Levy, and A. Rapoport, 1988a, Experimental tests of the mean-variance model for portfolio selection, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 42, 388-410. Kroll, Y., H. Levy, and A. Rapoport, 1988b, Experimental tests of the separation theorem and the capital asset pricing model, American Economic Review 78, 500-519. Kruschke, J. K., and M. K. Johansen, 1999, A model of probabilistic category learning, Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition 25. Kuran, T., and C. Sunstein, 1999, Availability cascades and risk regulation, Stanford Law Review 51, 683-768. Kurz, M., 1997, Endogenous Economic Fluctuations (Springer Verlag, New York, N.Y.). Kyle, A., and F. A. Wang, 1997, Speculation duopoly with agreement to disagree: Can overconfidence survive the market test?, Journal of Finance 52, 2073-2090. Kyle, A., and W. Xiong, 2000, Contagion as a wealth effect, Duke University. La Porta, R., J. Lakonishok, A. Shleifer, and R. W. Vishny, 1997, Good news for value stocks: Further evidence on market eÆciency, Journal of Finance 52, 859-874. Laibson, D., 1997, Golden eggs and hyperbolic discounting, Quarterly Journal of Economics 112, 443-477. Lakonishok, J., A. Shleifer, and R. W. Vishny, 1992, The impact of institutional trading on stock prices, Journal of Financial Economics 32, 23-43. Lakonishok, J., A. Shleifer, and R. W. Vishny, 1994, Contrarian investment, extrapolation and risk, Journal of Finance 49, 1541-1578. Lakonishok, J., and T. Vermaelen, 1990, Anomalous price behavior around repurchase tender offers, Journal of Finance 45, 455-77. Lamont, O., and R. Thaler, 2000, Can the market add and subtract? mispricing in tech stock carveouts, University of Chicago GSB Working Paper. Langer, E. J., 1975, The illusion of control, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 32, 311-328. Langer, E. J., and J. Roth, 1975, Heads I win tails it's chance: The illusion of control as a function of the sequence of outcomes in a purely chance task, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 32, 951-955. LeBaron, B., 2000a, Agent-based computational finance: Suggested readings and early research, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 24, 679-702. LeBaron, B., 2000b, Evolution and time horizons in an agent-based stock market, Brandeis University and NBER. LeBaron, B., 2000c, Evolving long run investors in a short run world, Brandeis University and NBER. Lee, C., 2001, Market eÆciency and accounting research, Journal of Accounting and Economics forthcoming. Lee, C., A. Shleifer, and R. Thaler, 1991, Investor sentiment and the closed-end fund puzzle, Journal of Finance 46, 75-109. Lee, C. M., J. Myers, and B. Swaminathan, 1999, What is the intrinsic value of the dow?, Journal of Finance 54, 1693 - 1741. Lee, C. M., and B. Swaminathan, 2000a, Do stock prices overreact to earnings news?, Parker Center Working Paper, Cornell University. Lee, C. M., and B. Swaminathan, 2000b, Price momentum and trading volume, Journal of Finance 55, 2017 - 2069. Lee, I. H., 1998, Market crashes and informational avalanches, Review of Economic Studies 65, 741-759. Lenney, E., 1977, Women's self-confidence in achievement settings, Psychological Bulletin 84, 1-13. LeRoy, S. F., and R. D. Porter, 1981, Stock price volatility: A test based on implied variance bounds, Econometrica 49, 97-113. Lewellen, J., 1999, The time-series relations among expected return, risk, and book-to- market, Journal of Financial Economics 54. Lewellen, J., 2000, Momentum profits and the autocorrelation of returns, Working Paper, University of Rochester, Rochester, NY. Lewellen, J., and J. Shanken, 2000, Market efficiency, rational expectations, and estimation risk, Working Paper, University of Rochester, Rochester, NY. Lewis, K. K., 1999, Trying to explain home bias in equities and consumption, Journal of Economic Literature 37, 571-608. Libby, R., R. Bloomfield, and M. Nelson, 2001, Experimental research in Financial accounting, Cornell University. Lichtenstein, S., and B. Fischoff, 1977, Do those who know more also know more about how much they know?, Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 20, 159- 183. Lichtenstein, S., B. Fischoff, and L. Phillips, 1982, Calibration of probabilities: The state of the art to 1980, in Daniel Kahneman, Paul Slovic, and Amos Tversky, ed.: Judgement under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases pp. 306-334 (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge). Lichtenstein, S., and P. Slovic, 1971, Reversals of preference between bids and choices in gambling decisions, Journal of Experimental Pscychology 89, 46-56. Liew, J., and M. Vassalou, 2000, Can book-to-market, size and momentum be risk factors that predict economic growth?, Journal of Financial Economics 57, . Lin, P., 2000a, Analyst forecast error and the profitability of earnings revisions strategies: Evidence from u.s. and u.k. equity markets, University ofWashington, SeattleWorking Paper. Lin, P., 2000b, Earnings revisions strategies in the u.s., u.k., and japan, University of Washington, Seattle Working Paper. Loewenstein, G., and D. Prelec, 1992, Anomalies in intertemporal choice: Evidence and an interpretation, Quarterly Journal of Economics 107, 573-597. Loewenstein, G. F., 1996, Out of control: Visceral in fluences on behavior, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 65, 272-292. Loewenstein, G. F., 2000, Emotions in economic theory and economic behavior, American Economic Review 65, 426-432. Longstaff, F. A., P. Santa-Clara, and E. Schwartz, 1999, Throwing away a billion dollars: The cost of suboptimal exercise strategies in the swaptions market, Anderson School Working Paper #8-00, UCLA. Lord, C. G., L. Ross, and M. R. Lepper, 1979, Biased assimilation and attitude polarization: the effects of prior theories on subsequently considered evidence, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 37, 2098-2109. Loughran, T., and J. Ritter, 1995, The new issues puzzle, The Journal of Finance 50, 23-52. Loughran, T., and J. Ritter, 2000, Uniformly least powerful tests of market efficiency, Journal of Financial Economics 55, 361-389. Lovell, M. C., 1986, Tests of the rational expectations hypothesis, American Economic Review 76, 110-124. Lundeberg, M. A., P. W. Fox, and J. Puncochar, 1994, Highly confident but wrong: Gender differences and similarities in confidence judgements, Journal of Educational Psychology 86, 114-121. Luo, G. Y., 1998, Market eÆciency and natural selection in a commodity futures market, Review of Financial Studies 11, 647-674. Luttmer, E. G. J., and T. Mariotti, 2000, Subjective discounting in an exchange economy, London School of Economics Working Paper. MacKinlay, A. C., 1995, Multifactor models do not explain deviations from the CAPM, Journal of Financial Economics 38, 3-28. Madrian, B., and D. Shea, 2000, The power of suggestion: Inertia in 401(k) participation and savings behavior, NBER working paper 7682. Maenhout, P. J., 2000, Robust portfolio rules and asset pricing, Harvard University Working Paper. Mankiw, N. G., 1986, The term structure of interest rates revisited, Brookings Papers Econ Activity 1, 61-110. Mankiw, N. G., and L. H. Summers, 1984, Do long-term interest rates overreact to short-term interest rates, Brookings Papers Economic Activity 1, 223-42. Mann, L., 1992, Stress, affect, and risk taking, in Risk-Taking Behavior pp. 201-230 (Wiley, Chichester). Mano, H., 1999, The influence of pre-existing negative affect on store purchase intentions, Journal of Retailing 75, 149-172. Markowitz, H. M., 1952, The utility of wealth, Journal Political Economy 60, 151-8. Marsh, T. A., and R. C. Merton, 1986, Dividend variability and variance bounds tests for the rationality of stock market prices, American Economic Review 76, 483-498. McClelland, A., and F. Bolger, 1994, The calibration of subjective probabilities: Theories and models 1980-1993, in Subjective Probability pp. 453-482 (Wiley, Chichester). McConnell, J. J., and G. C. Sanger, 1987, The puzzle in post-listing common stock returns, Journal of Finance 42, 119-140. Mehra, R., and E. Prescott, 1985, The equity premium: A puzzle, Journal of Monetary Economics 15, 145-161. Mehra, R., and E. Prescott, 2001, The equity premium puzzle in retrospect, in G.M. Constantinides, M. Harris, and R. Stulz, ed.: Handbook of the Economics of Finance (North Holland). Mehra, R., and R. Sah, 2000, Can small fluctuations in investors' subjective preferences induce large volatility in equity prices?, University of California, Santa Barbara. Merton, R. C., 1987, A simple model of capital market equilibrium with incomplete information, Journal of Finance 42, 483-510. Michaely, R., R. H. Thaler, and K. L. Womack, 1995, Price reactions to dividend initiations and omissions: Overreaction or drift?, Journal of Finance 50, 573-608. Michaely, R., and K. Womack, 1999, Con ict of interest and the credibility of under- writer analyst recommendations, Review of Financial Studies 12, 573-608. Miller, D. T., and M. Ross, 1975, Self-serving bias in attribution of causality: Fact or fiction?, Psychological Bulletin 82, 213-225. Mitchell, M., and E. Stafford, 2000, Managerial decisions and long-term stock price performance, Journal of Business 73, 287-320. Modigliani, F., and R. Cohn, 1979, Inflation, rational valuation, and the market, Financial Analyst Journal pp. 24-44. Moreland, R. L., and R. Beach, 1992, Exposure effects in the classroom: The development of affiity among students, Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 28, 255-276. Moskowitz, T. J., and M. Grinblatt, 1999, Do industries explain momentum?, Journal of Finance 54, 1249-1290. Mulligan, C. B., 1996, A logical economist's argument against hyperbolic discounting, University of Chicago. Mussweiler, T., and F. Strack, 1999, Hypothesis-consistent testing and semantic priming in the anchoring paradigm: A selective accessibility model, Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 35, 136 - 164. Neal, R., and S. M. Wheatley, 1998, Do measures of investor sentiment predict returns?, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 33, 523-547. Nel, E., R. Helmreich, and E. Aronson, 1969, Opinion change in the advocate as a function of the persuasibility of his audience: A clarification of the meaning of dissonance, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 12, 117-124. Newman, J., W. Wolfe, and E. Hearst, 1980, The feature-positive effect in adult human subjects, Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Learning and Memory 6, 630- 650. Ng, L. K., and Y. Fu, 2000, Market efficiency and return statistics: Evidence from real estate and stock markets using a present-value approach, University of Wisconsin. Nisbett, R., and L. Ross, 1980, Human Inference: Strategies and Shortcomings of Social Judgment (Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ). Nisbett, R. E., and T. D. Wilson, 1977a, The halo effect: Evidence for unconscious alteration of judgments, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 35, 250-256. Nisbett, R. E., and T. D. Wilson, 1977b, Telling more than we can know: Verbal reports on mental processes, Psychological Review 84, 231-259. Nofsinger, J. R., and R. W. Sias, 1999, Herding and feedback trading by institutional and individual investors, Journal of Finance 54, 2263 - 2295. Odean, T., 1998a, Are investors reluctant to realize their losses?, Journal of Finance 53, 1775-1798. Odean, T., 1998b, Volume, volatility, price and pro it when all traders are above average, Journal of Finance 53, 1887-1934. Odean, T., 1999, Do investors trade too much?, American Economic Review 89, 1279- 1298. O'Donoghue, T., and M. Rabin, 1999, Doing it now or later, American Economic Review 89, 103-124. Palomino, F., 1996, Noise trading in small markets, Journal of Finance 51, 1537-50. Payne, J. W., J. R. Bettman, and E. J. Johnson, 1992, Behavioral decision research: A constructive processing perspective, Annual Review of Psychology 43, 87-131. Peavy, J. W., 1990, Returns on initial public offerings of closed-end funds, Review of Financial Studies 3, 695-708. Pennington, N., and R. Hastie, 1988, Explanation-based decision making: Effects of memory structure on judgment, Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition 14, 521-533. Pesaran, M. H., and A. Timmermann, 1995, Predictability of stock returns: Robustness and economic significance, Journal of Finance 50, 1201-1228. Peters, E., and P. Slovic, 1996, The role of affect and worldviews as orienting dispositions in the perception and acceptance of nuclear power, Journal of Applied Social Psychology 26, 1427-1453. Petty, R. E., F. Gleicher, and S. M. Baker, 1991, Multiple roles for a ect in persuasion, in J. Forgas, ed.: Emotion and Social Judgments pp. 181-200 (Pergamon, Oxford). Pontiff, J., and L. D. Schall, 1998, Book-to-market ratios as predictors of market returns, Journal of Financial Economics 49, 141-160. Poterba, J. M., and L. H. Summers, 1988, Mean reversion in stock returns: Evidence and implications, Journal of Financial Economics 22, 27-59. Poteshman, A., 2000, Underreaction, overreaction, and increasing misreaction to information in the options market, Journal of Finance, forthcoming. Rabin, M., 1998, Psychology and economics, Journal of Economic Literature 36, 11-46. Rabin, M., 2000, Inference by believers in the law of small numbers, University of California, Berkeley Working Paper. Rabin, M., and J. Schrag, 1999, First impressions matter: A model of confirmatory bias, Quarterly Journal of Economics 94, 37-82. Ranguelova, E., 2000, Disposition effect and firm size: New evidence on individual investor trading activity, Harvard University. Rashes, M. S., 2001, Massively confused investors making conspicuously ignorant choices (mci - mcic), Journal of Finance forthcoming. Rau, P. R., and T. Vermaelen, 1998, Glamour, value and the post-acquisition performance of acquiring firms, Journal of Financial Economics 49, 223-253. Read, D., G. Loewenstein, and M. Rabin, 1999, Choice bracketing, Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 19, 171-197. Richards, A. J., 1997, Winner-loser reversals in national stock market indices: Can they be explained?, Journal of Finance 52, 2129-2144. Richardson, M., and T. Smith, 1994, A unified approach to testing for serial correlation in stock returns, Journal of Business 67, 371-399. Richardson, M., and J. H. Stock, 1989, Drawing inferences from statistics based on multiyear asset returns, Journal of Financial Economics 25, 323-348. Richardson, S., S. H. Teoh, and P. D. Wysocki, 1999, Tracking analysts' forecasts over the annual earnings horizon: Are analysts' forecasts optimistic or pessimistic?, Ohio State University Fisher College of Business Working Paper. Rietz, T. A., 1998, Enforcing arbitrage restrictions in experimental asset markets, University of Iowa Working Paper. Ritov, I., 1996, Probability of regret: Anticipation of uncertainty resolution in choice, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 66, 228-236. Ritov, I., and J. Baron, 1990, Reluctance to vaccinate: omission bias and ambiguity, Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 3, 263-277. Ritter, J. R., and R. S. Warr, 2001, The decline of inflation and the bull market of 1982 to 1999, University of Florida Working Paper. Roll, R. W., 1984, Orange juice and weather, American Economic Review 74, 861-880. Roll, R. W., 1988, r2, Journal of Finance 43, 541-566. Rosenberg, B., K. Reid, and R. Lanstein, 1985, Persuasive evidence of market inefficiency, Journal of Portfolio Management 11, 9-17. Rosenthal, L., and C. Young, 1990, The seemingly anomalous price behavior of royal dutch shell and unilever nv/plc, Journal of Financial Economics 26, 123-141. Ross, L., 1977, The intuitive psychologist and his shortcomings: Distortions in the attribution process, in L. Berkowitz, ed.: Advances in experimental social psychology 10, 174-220 (Academic Press, New York, NY). Ross, L., D. Green, and P. House, 1977, The "false consensus effect": an egocentric bias in social perception and attribution processes, Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 13, 279-301. Ross, L., M. R. Lepper, F. Strack, and J. Steinmetz, 1977, Social explanation and social expectation: Effects of real and hypothetical explanations on subjective likelihood, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 35, 817-829. Rouwenhorst, K. G., 1998, International momentum strategies, Journal of Finance 53, 267-284. Rouwenhorst, K. G., 1999, Local return factors and turnover in emerging stock markets, Journal of Finance 54, 1439-1464. Rozeff, M. S., and M. A. Zaman, 1988, Market eÆciency and insider trading: New evidence, Journal of Business 61, 25-44. Rubinstein, A., 2000, Is it `economics and psychology'?: The case of hyperbolic discounting, Princeton University Economics Department. Sam |
URI: | https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/id/eprint/5300 |