Thoughts on quantifying overconfidence in economic experiments

Michailova, Julija and Katter, Joana K. Q. (2013): Thoughts on quantifying overconfidence in economic experiments.

Abstract

This article illustrates the difficulties in quantifying overconfidence in experimental finance and outlines a procedure for the development of a reliable overconfidence measurement instrument. Following the suggested two-stage procedure a sample measure of overconfidence is developed. First a pilot test is conducted to divide the initial fifty items into three difficulty levels: hard, moderate and easy questions. A final test was compiled of six questions of each difficulty levels. In the second phase a replicability check was run with the final instrument.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: miscalibration; overconfidence; overconfidence quantification; instrument development; experimental finance; economic experiments.
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C4 - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics > C49 - Other; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C8 - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology ; Computer Programs > C80 - General; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C9 - Design of Experiments > C90 - General

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