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A Simulation of the Illegal Coal Mining in Quang Ninh Province, Vietnam using Vensim

Phan, Tuan (2008): A Simulation of the Illegal Coal Mining in Quang Ninh Province, Vietnam using Vensim.

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Abstract

Using Vensim PLE, this paper provides a simulation of the illegal coal mining in Quang Ninh province, Vietnam. Examining the three main loops including need for income effect, government enforcement and coal management effects and other effects (illegal density, technology, community and psychological effects), the paper sketches several scenarios under different levels of the key variables. Obtaining these results, the paper suggests a better scene in terms of socio-economic and environmental sustainability basing on the two major components. First, the government authorities should urge the enforcement and revise the coal management. Second, the community should have more active activities to abolish the illegal mining trend and raise effectively warnings about the danger of the illegal mining. Those parallel implementations shall create a surprisingly positive effect on the reduction of illegal coal mining in the province.

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