Munich Personal RePEc Archive

Economic growth x environment: forecasts for the Brazilian economy and its 5 macro regions, 2002 to 2012

Guilhoto, Joaquim José Martins and Lopes, Ricardo Luis and Motta, Ronaldo Seroa da (2002): Economic growth x environment: forecasts for the Brazilian economy and its 5 macro regions, 2002 to 2012.

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Abstract

Using the MIBRA model, an Applied Interregional General Equilibrium Model, constructed for the Brazilian economy and its five macro regions (North, Northeast, Central West, Southeast, an South), this papers tries to identify which would be the impact of the economic growth in the Brazilian economy an in its macro regions, from 2002 to 2012, on environmental variables, i.e., organic and inorganic materials, particulates, sulfurates, water, energy, CO2, and the Amazon rain forest. Concerning the economic growth rates, two scenarios are constructed, one pessimist and other optimistic, and the impact of both scenarios on the environmental variables are then measured. Some major environmental concerns are raised for each one of the Brazilian macro regions: a) for the North region, represented mainly by the Amazon rain forest, it is taken into the consideration the trade off between the area used by agricultural activities with the area used by the rain forest; b) for the Northeast region, the main concern is the restriction on water use; c) for the Central West region, it is taken into consideration the expansion of the agriculture frontier; d) for the Southeast and South regions, the more industrialized regions, pollutants are a problem

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