Munich Personal RePEc Archive

Impactos de alterações nas exportações brasileiras de carnes sobre a economia brasileira

Bliska, Flávia Maria de Mello and Guilhoto, Joaquim José Martins (2000): Impactos de alterações nas exportações brasileiras de carnes sobre a economia brasileira.

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Abstract

This work analyzes how changes in domestic and foreign macroeconomic variables can impact the Brazilian meat exports and consequently the Brazilian economy. This study is conducted mainly in two stages: a) a Vector Auto-Regression (VAR) model is used to evaluate the impact of changes in the domestic and foreign macroeconomic variables on Brazilian beef and poultry exports; b) next the results obtained in the VAR model are applied in an Input-Output model to evaluate the changes in the levels of importance of the different production sectors, and especially in the animal-raising’s sectors and slaughter and meat process industries. The results indicate that changes in macroeconomic variables can cause significant impacts on Brazilian meat exports, which can affect the Brazilian economy mainly in the following sectors: corn farming; cattle, poultry and other animal-raising's sectors; other farm products; chemistry; pharmacy and veterinary; plastic goods; beef, poultry and other meat process industries; other food products; commerce and transport; public usefulness and services.

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