Argentina, Brasil e Uruguai: um estudo dos impactos regionais da ALCA

Curzel, Rosana and Silber, Simão Davi and Guilhoto, Joaquim José Martins (2007): Argentina, Brasil e Uruguai: um estudo dos impactos regionais da ALCA.

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to estimate the effects on the Brazilian, Argentinean and Uruguayan economies of a Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA). We use the GTAP (6.2) computable general equilibrium model and database to assess the effect of FTAA. The global CGE model allows us to analyze direct and indirect economic impacts on member countries as well as on other countries in the region. We want to know if FTAA would be beneficial to increase trade between member countries and if there are benefits on economic welfare. We consider a total of six liberalization scenarios. The first one is the FTAA. We assume that full market access is allowed for all goods across the American countries. That is, all tariffs barriers are eliminated for agriculture and manufacturing sectors. A second scenario assumes that Brazil does not sign the FTAA, but Argentina and Uruguay do so. A third scenario takes the first liberalization scenario and excludes. Finally, from the fourth to the sixth scenarios we repeat the first three scenarios, but we exclude sensible products. Before beginning each exercise, we updated the GTAP’s tariff database with the available information. This was done to the tariffs applied by US and Brazil to American countries. The analysis decomposes the effects of market access on the Brazilian and Argentinean economies in terms of international trade increase and measures the net effect of trade creation and trade diversion. We also analyze the welfare effects in all simulations.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay: a study of the regional impacts of ALCA
• Language: Portuguese
• Keywords: MERCOSUL, FFTA, trade liberalization and general equilibrium
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C6 - Mathematical Methods ; Programming Models ; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling > C67 - Input-Output Models; D - Microeconomics > D5 - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium > D57 - Input-Output Tables and Analysis; R - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics > R1 - General Regional Economics > R15 - Econometric and Input-Output Models ; Other Models

References

ADAMS, Philip. D. (2005). Interpretation of results from CGE models such as GTAP. Journal of Policy Modeling, v. 27, pp. 941-959.

BROCKMEIER, Martina (2001). A Graphical Exposition of the GTAP Model. GTAP Technical Paper, Nº 8. Disponível em https://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/resources/tech_papers.asp, consultado em 26/10/2005.

DIMARANAN, Betina V. and Robert A. MCDOUGALL (Editors), 2005. Global Trade, Assistance, and Production: The GTAP 6 Data Base, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana.

DOMINGUES, Edson P. e HADDAD, Eduardo A. (2006). Impactos setoriais e regionais da ALCA: projeções para a economia brasileira. Pesquisa e planejamento econômico. IPEA, Rio de Janeiro, v. 36, n. 2, agosto, pp. 255-287.

FTTA (2007). Official website of the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA). IN: http://www.ftaa-alca.org

GURGEL, Ângelo Costa, BITENCOURT, Mayra Batista e TEIXEIRA, Erly Cardoso (2002). Impactos dos acordos de liberalização comercial Alca e Mercoeuro sobre os países membros. Revista Brasileira de Economia, vol. 56, n.2, Rio de Janeiro.

HERTEL, Thomas W. (Org.) 1997. Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and Applications. Cambridge University Press.

HUFF, Karen M. e Hertel, Thomas W. (2000). Decomposing Welfare in the GTAP Model. GTAP Technical Paper, n. 5., 45 p.. https://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/resources

KUME, Honório e PIANI, Guida (2004). Alca: uma estimativa do impacto no comércio bilateral Brasil-Estados Unidos. Texto para Discussão n. 1058. IPEA/Rio de Janeiro.

LAENS, Silvia e TERRA, Maria Inês (2006). La agenda externa del Mercosur: el impacto de negociaciones con el ALCA, la UE y la OMC. Documento de Trabajo n. 03/06 . Facultad de Ciencias Sociales de Montevideo, Uruguay.

LAENS, Silvia e TERRA, Maria Inês (2003). Integration of the Américas: Welfare effects and options for the MERCOSUR. Project: The Mercosur and the Creation of the Free Trade Area of the Americas. Disponible en https://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/ resources/download/1566.pdf.

LIMA, J. E. D, DE MIGUEL, C. J., SCHUSCHNY, A. R. (2006). Acuerdos de Libre Comércio entre los países andinos y los Estados Unidos de Norteamérica: cuánto se puede esperar de ellos? CEPAL, mimeo.

PEARSON, K. R., HERTEL, T.W. e HORRIDGE, J. M. (2000). AnalyseGE: software assisting modellers in the analysis of their results. http://www.monash.edu.au/policy

USITC – United States International Trade Comission. Tariff database table. http://www.usitc.gov.