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Argentina, Brasil e Uruguai: um estudo dos impactos regionais da ALCA

Curzel, Rosana and Silber, Simão Davi and Guilhoto, Joaquim José Martins (2007): Argentina, Brasil e Uruguai: um estudo dos impactos regionais da ALCA.

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The purpose of this paper is to estimate the effects on the Brazilian, Argentinean and Uruguayan economies of a Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA). We use the GTAP (6.2) computable general equilibrium model and database to assess the effect of FTAA. The global CGE model allows us to analyze direct and indirect economic impacts on member countries as well as on other countries in the region. We want to know if FTAA would be beneficial to increase trade between member countries and if there are benefits on economic welfare. We consider a total of six liberalization scenarios. The first one is the FTAA. We assume that full market access is allowed for all goods across the American countries. That is, all tariffs barriers are eliminated for agriculture and manufacturing sectors. A second scenario assumes that Brazil does not sign the FTAA, but Argentina and Uruguay do so. A third scenario takes the first liberalization scenario and excludes. Finally, from the fourth to the sixth scenarios we repeat the first three scenarios, but we exclude sensible products. Before beginning each exercise, we updated the GTAP’s tariff database with the available information. This was done to the tariffs applied by US and Brazil to American countries. The analysis decomposes the effects of market access on the Brazilian and Argentinean economies in terms of international trade increase and measures the net effect of trade creation and trade diversion. We also analyze the welfare effects in all simulations.

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