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The Feldstein –Horioka Puzzle and structural breaks: Evidence from the largest countries of Asia.

Ketenci, Natalya (2014): The Feldstein –Horioka Puzzle and structural breaks: Evidence from the largest countries of Asia.

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The purpose of this paper is to investigate the level of capital mobility in the largest economies of Asia by testing the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle. Panel estimations using quarterly data for the period from 1995 to 2011 have been made for the seven largest economies of Asia, specifically Russia, Japan, South Korea, Turkey, India, Indonesia and China. This group of countries has gained significant economic power in the world over the last decade. Specifically, the growth rates of the sample has for a long period of time exceeded the growth rates of most developed countries. The total GDP adjusted for PPP is far above of the GDP of the EU and NAFTA groups and very close to the G7 group. The paper examines changes in investment savings relationships when the presences of structural shifts – where such exist – are taken into account. Recently developed panel techniques are employed to examine the investment savings relationship and estimate saving-retention coefficients. As a result of these estimations, countries were divided into two groups consisting of stable and unstable economies. This division of countries allows for more precise estimates of capital mobility. The empirical findings reveal that the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle exists in the groups. The saving-retention coefficient is estimated at 0.804 and 0.839 for the stable and unstable samples, respectively, which indicates a relatively higher level of capital mobility among stable countries. Results indicate that countries with high capital mobility are exposed to the negative effects of international market fluctuations.

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