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The impact of oil prices on economic activity in administrated price structure: the case of Tunisia

Necibi, Thameur (2013): The impact of oil prices on economic activity in administrated price structure: the case of Tunisia.

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Abstract

This article has for a core objective the handling of the established relation between oil price variation and certain macroeconomic variables, in this particular case GDP, RMM, CPI, Ex-factory price. The study in Tunisia is based on quarterly and monthly data from the period going from 2000 to 2011 revealed three important facts. First, it showed at the level of the quarterly analysis that the Tunisian authority succeeded in limiting the effect of crude oil price shock, it was approved through an impulse analysis of the dynamic responses, a second important result was revealed at the level of the quarterly analysis and the established long-term relation which showed that the GDP or the industrial production positively and significantly depend on Brent oil price and on the inflation in a structure of administered price. Second at the level of the monthly analysis, the conducted study allowed us to identify the nature of inflation, which is said to the production cost through introducing a new variable which is ex-factory price. Third, the conducted study allowed us to study the asymmetric relation between Brent oil price and the monetary mechanism in an administered price regime.

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