Extreme Weather Events and Migration: The Case of Morocco

Cong Nguyen, Minh and Wodon, Quentin (2014): Extreme Weather Events and Migration: The Case of Morocco.

Abstract

Do extreme weather events such as droughts or floods lead to migration away from the areas affected by these events? This chapter aims to provide an answer to that question for Morocco using a new nationally representative household survey implemented in 2009-10. The data suggest that around one in four households have been affected by weather shocks in the five years preceding the survey implementation. Droughts and floods are not directly identified by households as major reasons for migration, but insufficient agricultural revenue and a lack of agricultural employment as well as better employment opportunities at the place of destination are mentioned as reasons to migrate, and these are affected by adverse weather shocks. Furthermore, in regression analysis, after controlling for a wide range of individual and household characteristics, the probability of both temporary and permanent migration increases if the household has been affected by an adverse weather shock or the consequences thereof. Thus, while adverse weather events may not be the main driver of migration, they do contribute to it.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Climate change, Weather shocks, Migration, Morocco
• Subjects: R - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics > R2 - Household Analysis > R23 - Regional Migration ; Regional Labor Markets ; Population ; Neighborhood Characteristics

References

Azzam, A., and K. Sekkat, 2005. “Measuring Total-Factor Agricultural Productivity under Drought Conditions: The Case of Morocco”, The Journal of North African Studies 10(1): 19-31.

Barakat, F., and A. Handoufe, 1998. “Approche agroclimatique de la sécheresse agricole au Maroc”, Sécheresse, 9: 201-208.

Burger, N., A. Grant, S. Kups, Y. Rana, and Q. Wodon, 2014, Focus Countries, in Q. Wodon, A. Liverani, G. Joseph, and N. Bougnoux, editors, Climate Change and Migration: Evidence from the Middle East and North Africa, World Bank Study, Washington, DC.

Elasha, B. O., 2010. “Mapping of Climate Change Threats and Human Development Impacts in the Arab Region,” mimeo, New York: United Nations Development Program.

Foresight, 2011. Migration and Global Environmental Change, London: The Government Office for Science.

IPCC, 2012, Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation, in C. B. Field, V. Barros, T. F. Stocker, D. Qin, D. J. Dokken, K. L. Ebi, M. D. Mastrandrea, and G.-K. P. K.J. Mach, S.K. Allen, M. Tignor, and P.M. Midgley, Eds., A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA.

McSweeney, C., M. New, and G. Lizcano, 2009. UNDP Climate Change Profiles: Documentation, mimeo, New York: United Nations Development Program.

Skees, J., et al., 2001. “Developing Rainfall-Based index Insurance in Morocco”, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 2577, World Bank, Washington, DC.

Swearingen, W. D., and A. Bencherifa, 2000. “An Assessment of the Drought Hazard in Morocco”, in D. A. Wilhite, Editor, Drought: A Global Assessment, Vol. 1, New York: Routledge.

Sowers, J., and E. Weinthal, 2010. Climate Change Adaptation in the Middle East and North Africa: Challenges and Opportunities, The Dubai Initiative Working Paper No. 2.

United Nations Development Programme and Arab Fund for Economic and Social Development. 2009. Arab Human Development Report 2009: Challenges to Human Security in the Arab Countries. New York: UNDP.

Verner, D., Editor, 2012, Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries, Directions in Development, World Bank, Washington, DC.

Warren, R., N. Nicholls, R. Levy, P. Price, J. 2006. “Understanding the Regional Impacts of Climate Change: Research Report Prepared for the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change”, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change, Research Working Paper 90.

Wodon, Q,, N. Burger, A. Grant, and A. Liverani, 2014, Climate Change, Migration, and Adaptation in the MENA Region, in Q. Wodon, A. Liverani, G. Joseph, and N. Bougnoux, editors, Climate Change and Migration: Evidence from the Middle East and North Africa, World Bank Study, Washington, DC.

World Bank, 2007. World Bank Development Report 2008. Agriculture for Development, World Washington, DC: The World Bank.

World Bank, 2010, World Development Report 2010: Development and Climate Change, Washington, DC: World Bank.