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Sobre la independencia de los flujos de inversión extranjera de cartera y el crecimiento económico en México

López-Herrera, Francisco and Venegas-Martínez, Francisco (2014): Sobre la independencia de los flujos de inversión extranjera de cartera y el crecimiento económico en México.

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Abstract

This paper carries out an analysis of cointegration between economic growth and the dynamics of the flows of foreign portfolio investment (FPI) in Mexico. Empirical evidence shows, through a VAR model and Granger causality tests, that flows coming from the FPI have no significant effect on the rate of growth of the Mexican economy and vice versa. Also, through an analysis of impulse-response functions, we find that the response of the quarterly growth rate of GDP to a shock (impulse) in the FPI is very low; vanishing in a few quarters. Also, the response of the FPI to a shock in itself and the GDP growth declines soon. Finally, we show, using a GARCH model, that the volatility of these flows does not affect the dynamics of the GDP growth rate in Mexico.

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