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Euro Exchange Rate Forecasting with Differential Neural Networks with an Extended Tracking Procedure

Ortiz-Arango, Francisco and Cabrera-Llanos, Agustín I. and Venegas-Martínez, Francisco (2014): Euro Exchange Rate Forecasting with Differential Neural Networks with an Extended Tracking Procedure.

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Abstract

This paper is aimed at developing a new kind of non-parametrical artificial neural network useful to forecast exchange rates. To do this, we departure from the so-called Differential or Dynamic neural Networks (DNN) and extend the tracking procedure. Under this approach, we examine the daily closing values of the exchange rates of the Euro against the US dollar, the Japanese yen and the British pound. With our proposal, Extended DNN or EDNN, we perform the tracking procedure from February 15, 1999, to August 31, 2013, and, subsequently, the forecasting procedure from September 2 to September 13, 2013. The accuracy of the obtained results is remarkable, since the percentage of the error in the predicted values is within the range from 0.001% to 0.69% in the forecasting period.

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