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The Nexus between Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty via Wavelet Approach: Some Lessons from Egyptian Case

Bouoiyour, Jamal and Selmi, Refk (2014): The Nexus between Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty via Wavelet Approach: Some Lessons from Egyptian Case. Forthcoming in: Economics Bulletin

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Abstract

The nexus between inflation and its uncertainty has been a topic of wide dispute. Using wavelet decomposition and with special reference to Egypt for the period 1960-2013, we find that the focal relationship varies substantially among the different frequencies involved. In the short-run, inflation expands inflation uncertainty and vice versa. In the medium term, higher inflation leads to greater volatility, while there is no evidence of significant link in the long-run. The main causes of these mixed outcomes have been organized into demand pull factors, cost push ones and the possible reflect of the conflicting underlying objectives pursued to avoid political pitfalls and the great instability that unfolded since 25th January 2011.

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