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An analysis of long-term scenarios for the transition to renewable energy in Greece

Halkos, George and Kevork, Ilias and Galani, Georgia and Tzeremes, Panagiotis (2014): An analysis of long-term scenarios for the transition to renewable energy in Greece.

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Abstract

This study is focused on the construction of long – term scenarios for the transition to renewable energy. Utilizing European and national targets, the key objective of this work is to investigate how these targets are reflected in both economic and environmental terms. The constructed model via the Long range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) software describes the impacts of energy supply and demand along with their implications for national long – term policy. Specifically, the research provides a look to the 2030 horizon in the energy and power system in Greece. Three scenarios are generated under different options, baseline (which is based on historical trends), target 2020 (which is based on the European target set in 2020) and target 2030 (which is based on the European target set in 2030). Furthermore, two additional scenarios are developed for the Greek GDP growth; the first one based on the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates and the second taking into account the estimates of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). The results show a substantial shift in the electricity generation mix by 2030, something that has to be reversed into renewable energy solutions.

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