Oil price shocks and domestic inflation in Thailand

Jiranyakul, Komain (2015): Oil price shocks and domestic inflation in Thailand.

Abstract

This paper employ monthly data to examine the empirical relationship between oil price shocks and domestic inflation rate during 1993 and 2013. The results show that oil price, domestic or international, does not have the long-run impact on consumer prices. However, oil price shocks cause inflation to increase while oil price uncertainty does not cause an increase in inflation. Furthermore, inflation itself causes inflation uncertainty. The findings of this study encourage the monetary authorities to formulate a more accommodative policy to respond to oil price shocks.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Oil shocks, inflation, bivariate GARCH, causality
• Subjects: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E31 - Price Level ; Inflation ; Deflation; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q4 - Energy > Q43 - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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