Kucera, Jakub (2015): Russia's current economic conundrum. Published in: Vestnik: The Journal of Russian and Asian Studies No. Issue 17, Spring 2015 (21 April 2015)
Preview |
PDF
MPRA_paper_64320.pdf Download (372kB) | Preview |
Abstract
This paper provides a concise overview of Russia's economy. First, it describes the growth model of the past fifteen years and explains why that model is now exhausted. Secondly, it examines the reaction of the country´s leadership to the stagnating economy. Finally, to evaluate the feasibility of any reform programme, the paper pinpoints the biggest economic problems currently facing Russia with an overview of the main questions relating to Russian modernization. The main problems examined will be those that the Russian economy faced before the current crisis, as these can still be considered fundamental and, as we will see, were actually causing considerable concern even before sanctions were imposed during the Ukrainian crisis and before the current economic crisis began.
Item Type: | MPRA Paper |
---|---|
Original Title: | Russia's current economic conundrum |
Language: | English |
Keywords: | Russia; economy; stagnation; crisis; problems; modernization |
Subjects: | E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E2 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy > E22 - Investment ; Capital ; Intangible Capital ; Capacity E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E2 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy > E24 - Employment ; Unemployment ; Wages ; Intergenerational Income Distribution ; Aggregate Human Capital ; Aggregate Labor Productivity E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E6 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook > E61 - Policy Objectives ; Policy Designs and Consistency ; Policy Coordination E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E6 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook > E66 - General Outlook and Conditions F - International Economics > F3 - International Finance > F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q4 - Energy > Q43 - Energy and the Macroeconomy |
Item ID: | 64320 |
Depositing User: | Jakub Kucera |
Date Deposited: | 27 May 2015 05:58 |
Last Modified: | 29 Sep 2019 08:33 |
References: | ALEKSASHENKO, Sergey, 2012. “Russia’s economic agenda to 2020”, International Affairs 88:1 (2012). AMOS, Howard, 2015. “Russian Central Bank Set to Keep Growth-Stifling 17% Rate”, The Moscow Times (January 29, 2015), at www.themoscowtimes.com/article/515141.html, last accessed February 16, 2015. BBC, 2013. “Ekonomika Rossii v 2014-om: tri neveselykh scenariia” (Russian Economy in 2014: Three Unhappy Scenarios), BBC-Russkaia sluzhba (December 31, 2013), at www.bbc.co.uk/russian/business/2013/12/131223_russia_2013_economics_interview.shtml, accessed November 10, 2014. BBC, 2014. “Rossiia ukrepit sviazi s Aziej, no eto ne budet mest´iu ES“ (Russia to Strengthen Ties With Asia, but not as Revenge on EU) (September 19, 2014), at www.bbc.co.uk/russian/russia/2014/09/140919_russia_medvedev_economy.shtml, accessed February 16, 2015. BBC, 2015. “Pressa Rosii: Moskva vziala kurs na samoizoljaciiu? – Pensionnyj vozrast opiat´ na slukhu“ (Russian Press: Moscow Aiming At Self-Isolation? – Retirement Age Under Discussion Again) (January 30, 2015), at www.bbc.co.uk/russian/russia/2015/01/150130_rus_press, accessed February 16, 2015. BIDDER, Benjamin, 2012. “Potjomkinsche Fabriken“ (Potemkin´s Factories), Der Spiegel, no. 48 (2012). BIDDER, Benjamin, 2014. “Russland in der Krise: Die Wirtschaft ist Putins Achillesferse“ (Russia in Crisis: Economy is Putin´s Achilles Heel), Spiegel-online (January 1, 2014), at www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/wirtschaftskrise-wachstum-in-russland-stockt-a-942003.html, accessed November 10, 2014. BULIN, Dmitrij, 2013 (A). “Zachem nuzhna novaia privatizaciia v Rossii?” (Why is New Privatization Necessary in Russia?), BBC-russkaia sluzhba (June 29, 2013), at www.bbc.co.uk/russian/business/2013/06/130628_russia_privatization_plan.shtml, accessed November 10, 2014. BULIN, Dmitrij, 2013 (B). “Novyj biudzhet Rossii” (New Russian Budget), BBC-russkaia sluzhba (October 25, 2013), at www.bbc.co.uk/russian/russia/2013/10/131025_russia_budget_2014.shtml, accessed November 10, 2014. BULIN, Dmitrij, 2014. “Gajdarovskij forum: ministry posporili o pensiiakh“ (Gaidar Forum: Ministers Argued Over Pensions), BBC-Russkaia sluzhba (January 17, 2014), at www.bbc.co.uk/russian/business/2014/01/140117_gaidar_forum_results.shtml, accessed November 10, 2014. CLOVER, Charles, 2013. “Russia slowdown challenges liberal wisdom”, Financial Times, (April 17, 2013), at www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/33f125f4-a68b-11e2-95b1-00144feabdc0.html, accessed November 10, 2014. EBERSTADT, Nicholas, 2011. “The Dying Bear”, Foreign Affairs, no. 6 (2011). ECONOMIC EXPERT GROUP, 2004-2015. “Obzor ekonomicheskikh pokazatelej”, various reports from 2004 to 2015, at http://www.eeg.ru/pages/186, accessed February 16, 2015. ECONOMIST, The, 2013 (A). “The S Word“ (November 9, 2013), at www.economist.com/news/europe/21589455-will-stagnating-economy-bring-about-much-needed-structural-reform-s-word, accessed November 10, 2014. ECONOMIST, The, 2013 (B). “To privatise or not to privatise” (January 19, 2013), at www.economist.com/news/europe/21569756-russian-government-has-ambitious-plans-privatisationsupposedly-privatise-or-not, accessed November 10, 2014. ECONOMIST, The, 2013 (C). “Sputtering“ (June 22, 2013), at www.economist.com/news/europe/21579877-slowing-growth-reflects-structural-failings-kremlin-not-tackling-sputtering, accessed November 10, 2014. ECONOMIST, The, 2014. “Sochi or bust” (January 30, 2014), at www.economist.com/news/briefing/21595428-conspicuous-dazzle-games-masks-country-and-president-deepening-trouble-sochi, accessed November 10, 2014. EDOVINA, Tatiana, 2013. “Uluchshenije investklimata v RF ne pospevajet za grafikom“ (Business Climate Improvement in Russia Behind Schedule), Kommersant (September 23, 2013), at www.kommersant.ru/doc/2303162, accessed November 10, 2014. FISH, Isaac Stone, 2013. “Someone Tell the World Bank About Corruption in Russia”, Foreign Policy (October 29, 2013), at www.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2013/10/29/someone_tell_the_world_bank_about_corruption_in_russia, accessed November 10, 2014. FORBES, 2013. “MER priznal nevypolnimym ispolnenie socialnykh majskikh ukazov“ (Ministry of Economic Development: May Decrees Impossible to Fulfil), Forbes (December 3, 2013), at www.forbes.ru/news/248186-mer-priznal-nevypolnimym-ispolnenie-sotsialnykh-maiskikh-ukazov, accessed November 10, 2014. FORTESCUE, Stephen, 2012. “(Ohn-)Macht?” (Power(less)?), Osteuropa, no. 6-8 (2012). GAJDAEV, Vitalij, 2014. “ Poteriannyj Janvar” (Lost January), Kommersant (February 3, 2014), at www.kommersant.ru/doc/2398426. GERHARDT, Wolfgang, et al., 2012. “Spaltungen – Editorial” (Cleavages – Editorial), Osteuropa, no. 6-8 (2012). GRIGOREV, L., et al, 2008. "Postkrizisnaia struktura ekonomiki i formirovanie koalicij dlia inovacij“ (Post-Crisis Structure and Forming a New Innovation Coalition), Voprosy ekonomiki, no. 4 (2008). HOLODNY, Elena, 2015. "Russia's Migrant Workforce Is Dwindling", Business Insider (January 8, 2015), at www.businessinsider.com/migrants-to-russia-drops-by-70-percent-2015-1, accessed February 16, 2015. IASIN, E., et. al, 2013. “Sostoitsia li novaia model ekonomicheskogo rosta v Rossii ?” (Is There a New Economic Growth Model in Russia?), Voprosy ekonomiki, no. 5 (2013). IMF, 2013. “World Economic Outlook Database, October 2013”, at www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2013/02/weodata/index.aspx, accessed November 10, 2014. KELLY, Lidia; KORSUNSKAYA, Darya, 2013. “In blow to Putin, Russia slashes long-term growth forecast“, Reuters (November 7, 2013), at www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/07/us-russia-economy-idUSBRE9A60BX20131107, accessed February 16, 2015. KOMMERSANT, 2013. “Neplatezhesposobnyj spros” (Insolvent Demand) (December 23, 2013), at www.kommersant.ru/doc/2375030, accessed November 10, 2014. KOMMERSANT, 2014 (A). “Vladimir Putin: dlja uluchsheniia delovogo klimata“ (Vladimir Putin: For Business Climate Improvement) (October 10, 2013), at www.kommersant.ru/news/2314190, accessed November 10, 2014. KOMMERSANT, 2014 (B). “Dmitrij Medvedev dopuskaet vozmozhnosti snizheniia nekotorykh nalogov“ (Dmitrij Medvedev Can Imagine Some Taxes Go Down) (December 13, 2014), at www.kommersant.ru/doc/2633391, accessed February 16, 2014. KRAVCHENKO, Stepan; ROSE, Scott, 2013. “Russia Forecasts Losing Ground in Global Economy by 2030”, Bloomberg (November 7, 2013), at www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-07/russia-forecasts-losing-ground-in-global-economy-by-2030.html, accessed November 10, 2014. KUZNECOVA, Elizabeta, 2013. “Aviakompanii predpochli import samoljetov“ (Airlines Prefer Importing Planes), Kommersant (November 7, 2013), at www.kommersant.ru/doc/2337354, accessed November 10, 2014. LABINSKAIA, I., 2011. “Rossiia – obshschestvo riskov-2“ (Russia – Society of Risk-2), Mirovaia ekonomika i mezhdunarodnye otnosheniia, no. 11 (2011). LAQUEUR, Walter, 2010. “Moscow's Modernization Dilemma”, Foreign Affairs, no. 89, issue 6 (November/December 2010). MARKIT, 2013. “HSBC Russia Manufacturing PMI” (December 27, 2013), at www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/fddad0edc0bd45aa930042490e097cd1, accessed November 10, 2014. MAU, V., 2013. “Mezhdu modernizaciej i zastoem – ekonomicheskaia politika 2012 goda” (Between Modernization and Stagnation – Economic Policy of 2012”, Voprosy ekonomiki, no. 2 (2013). MEDETSKY, Anatoly, 2013. “Putin Promises $13.6Bln in Infrastructure Spending”, The Moscow Times (June 21, 2013), at www.themoscowtimes.com/article/482057.html, accessed November 10, 2014. MEDVEDEV, Dmitrij, 2009. “Rossiia, vpered!” (Russia, Forward!) (September 10, 2009), at http://kremlin.ru/transcripts/5413, accessed November 10, 2014. MINAEV, Sergej, 2013. “Patrioticheskij kredit” (Patriotic Credit), Kommersant (June 24, 2013), at www.kommersant.ru/doc/2213609, accessed November 10, 2014. MINISTRY OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, 2013. “Prognoz dolgosrochnogo socialno-ekonomicheskogo razvitiia Rossijskoj Federacii na period do 2030 goda” (Prognosis of Long-Term Socio-Economic Development of the Russian Federation Through 2030), (Moscow: March 2013). MOUKINE, Guennadi, 2013. “Minister Pushes Intensive Approach to Economic Salvation”, The Moscow Times (October 2, 2013), at www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/minister-pushes-intensive-approach-to-economic-salvation/486944.html, accessed November 10, 2014. MOSCOW TIMES, The, 2013 (A). “Economists Gloomy on GDP Growth Prospects in 2014” (December 27, 2013), at www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/economists-gloomy-on-gdp-growth-prospects-in-2014/492171.html#ixzz2pp3nu6Z0, accessed November 10, 2014. MOSCOW TIMES, The, 2013 (B). “World Bank Cuts Growth Forecast” (September 26, 2013), at www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/world-bank-cuts-growth-forecast/486638.html, accessed November 10, 2014. MOSCOW TIMES, The, 2013 (C). “IMF Cuts Russia Growth Forecast “ (September 25, 2013), at www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/imf-cuts-russia-growth-forecast/486579.html, accessed November 10, 2014. MOSCOW TIMES, The, 2013 (D). “Russia's Tax Climate Rated 56th in the World“ (November 21, 2013), at www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/russias-tax-climate-rated-56th-in-the-world/490006.htm, accessed November 10, 2014. MOSCOW TIMES, The, 2013 (E). “Ministry Stakes on Investment” (September 26, 2013), at www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/ministry-stakes-on-investment/486616.html, accessed November 10, 2014. MOSCOW TIMES, The, 2013 (F). “Putin Warns Against Draining All Fiscal Reserves” (November 8, 2013), at www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/putin-warns-against-draining-all-fiscal-reserves/489196.html, accessed November 10, 2014. MOSCOW TIMES, The, 2013 (G). “Siluanov Says Budget Shortfall of $30Bln Could Be Covered by Reserve Fund”, The Moscow Times (July 5, 2013), at www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/siluanov-says-budget-shortfall-of-30bln-could-be-covered-by-reserve-fund/482725.html, accessed November 10, 2014. MOSCOW TIMES, The, 2014 (A). “Russia's Economy Retracted in January, Report Says” (February 21, 2014), at www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/russias-economy-retracted-in-january-report-says/494978.html, accessed November 10, 2014. MOSCOW TIMES, The, 2014 (B). “Russia Jumps to 44th in Bloomberg Business Rankings” (January 23, 2014), at www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/russia-jumps-to-44th-in-bloomberg-business-rankings/493192.html#ixzz2rLfGi8EU, accessed November 10, 2014. MOSCOW TIMES, The, 2014 (C). “Siluanov Says Russia's Ukraine Bailout Mostly Coming from National Welfare Fund”, The Moscow Times (January 27, 2014), at www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/siluanov-says-russias-ukraine-bailout-mostly-coming-from-national-welfare-fund/493294.html, accessed November 10, 2014. MOSCOW TIMES, The, 2014 (D). “Shuvalov Sees Government Role in Economy Dropping to 25% by 2020” (January 16, 2014), at www.themoscowtimes.com/business_in_brief/article/shuvalov-sees-government-role-in-economy-dropping-to-25-by-2020/492772.html, accessed November 10, 2014. MOSCOW TIMES, The, 2015. “Russians Must Adapt to More Unemployment - Deputy Prime Minister” (January 23, 2015), at www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/russians-face-rising-unemployment-deputy-prime-minister/514842.html, accessed February 16, 2015. OPEN ECONOMY, 2014. “Russians Keep Cash in Banks, Not at Home” (September 29, 2014), at http://opec.ru/en/1758772.html, accessed February 16, 2015. PRIBYLOVSKY, Vladimir, 2013. “Clans are marching”, oDR (May 30, 2013), at www.opendemocracy.net/od-russia/vladimir-pribylovsky/clans-are-marching, accessed November 10, 2014. RIANOVOSTI, 2007. “Russia among top 5 in terms of GDP by 2020“ (June 9, 2007), at http://en.ria.ru/russia/20070609/66970013.html, accessed November 10, 2014. REUTERS, 2014. “Russian cbank raises key interest rate to 7 percent from 5.5 percent” (March 3, 2014), at www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/03/russia-markets-cbank-idUSL6N0M00BK20140303, accessed November 10, 2014. REUTERS, 2015. “Putin's Tunnel Vision on Defense Sharpens Russia's Economic Crisis”, The Moscow Times (January 16, 2015), at http://www.themoscowtimes.com/article/514463.html, accessed February 16, 2015. RYZHKOV, Vladimir, 2014. “Protivorechnaia politika neinvestirovaniia v chelovecheskij capital” (Contradictory Policy of Not Investing Into Human Capital), Rossiia v globalnoj politike (February 19, 2014), at www.globalaffairs.ru/svop-xxi/Protivorechivaya-politika-neinvestirovaniya-v-chelovecheskii-kapital-16387, accessed November 10, 2014. SCHRÖDER, Hans-Henning, 2014. “Politik in Zeiten nationaler Verzückung“ (Politics in Times of National Ecstasy), Russland-analysen NR. 288 (December 19, 2014), at http://www.laender-analysen.de/russland/pdf/RusslandAnalysen288.pdf, accessed February 16, 2015. SOUKUP, Ondřej, 2013. “S předvolebními sliby jsme se trochu unáhlili, přiznal Putin“ (Our Promises Went Too Far, Admitted Putin), IHNED.cz (September 5, 2013), at http://soukup.blog.ihned.cz/c1-60597170-s-predvolebnimi-sliby-jsme-se-trochu-unahlili-priznal-putin, accessed November 10, 2014. SOUKUP, Ondřej, 2014. “Miliardáři si stěžují na zásahy Kremlu” (Billionaires Complain About Kremlin´s Meddling), IHNED (October 22, 2014), at http://hn.ihned.cz/c1-61047440-miliardari-si-stezuji-na-zasahy-kremlu, accessed November 10, 2014. TOKAREVA, Anna, 2013. “Gossektor v ekonomike Rossii” (State Sector in Russian Economy), Kommersant (July 15, 2013), at www.kommersant.ru/doc/2233355, accessed November 10, 2014. TRANSPARENCY INTERNATIONAL, 2013. “Corruption Perception Index 2013”, at http://cpi.transparency.org/cpi2013/results/, accessed November 10, 2014. VISLOGUZOV, Vadim, KRIUCHKOVA, 2015. “Fond raciol´nogo blagosostoianiia” (Rational Welfare Fund), Kommersant (January 29, 2015), at http://www.kommersant.ru/doc/2655691, accessed February 16, 2015. WEAVER, Courtney, 2013. “Russia gives green light to stimulus programme”, Financial Times (July 25, 2013), at www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/17fda9ac-f53d-11e2-b4f8-00144feabdc0.html, accessed November 10, 2014. WORLD BANK, 2013 (A). “Russian Economic Report 30” (September 25, 2013), at www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2013/09/25/russian-economic-report-30, accessed November 10, 2014. WORLD BANK, 2013 (B). “Doklad ob ekonomike Rossii, No. 32” (Report on Russian Economy, No. 32) (September 2014), at http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2014/11/11/000470435_20141111124022/Rendered/PDF/912390WP0RUSSI000WB0REReport0320Rus.pdf, accessed February 16, 2015. WORLD BANK, 2014. “Russian Federation”, Doing Business 2014, at www.doingbusiness.org/data/exploreeconomies/russia/, accessed November 10, 2014. ZOTIKOVA, Oksana; DOROFEEV, VLADISLAV, 2013. “Katastroficheski ne khvataet kadrov” (The Lack of Specialists is Catastrophic), Kommersant (May 29, 2013), at www.kommersant.ru/doc/2191786, accessed November 10, 2014. |
URI: | https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/id/eprint/64320 |