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A regression based model of average exit time from poverty with application to Malawi

Mussa, Richard (2015): A regression based model of average exit time from poverty with application to Malawi.

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Abstract

The paper develops a regression based model of exit time from poverty. The model provides an integrated framework for analysing how policy interventions which target the growth rate of consumption, household and community characteristics, the poverty line, and inequality would affect the average exit time from poverty. The method is then illustrated using Malawian data from the Third Integrated Household Survey. The empirical results indicate that reduction in vertical inequalities relative to horizontal inequalities in Malawi would lead to a larger reduction in the length of time poor people stay poor. In both rural and urban areas, increases in the education of females have a larger effect on the exit time, and increases in employment in the tertiary industry reduce the exit time by a larger amount than employment in the primary or the secondary industries.

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