Munich Personal RePEc Archive

DAMPAK FLUKTUASI HARGA MINYAK DUNIA TERHADAP PEREKONOMIAN INDONESIA

Nizar, Muhammad Afdi (2012): DAMPAK FLUKTUASI HARGA MINYAK DUNIA TERHADAP PEREKONOMIAN INDONESIA. Published in: Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan , Vol. 6, No. 2 (December 2012): pp. 189-210.

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Abstract

This study aims to determine the impact of oil price shocks in the world markets on the economy of Indonesia during 2000–2011. Based on monthly time series data and using VAR model, the study tries to analyze effects of oil price shocks to economic growth, inflation rates, money supply, real exchange rates and interest rates. The results show several conclusions: (i) the oil price shocks in the world market have a positive impact on quarterly economic growth; (ii) it also pushes up the domestic inflation rate for a year; (iii) it increases the domestic money supply which lasts for 5 months; (iv) it negatively affects the real exchange rate of Rupiah for 10 months and (v) it leads to rising domestic interest rates (the effect of oil shocks on interest rates lasted for 10 months). Therefore, government needs to take steps that could transform the people habits of fuel uses from wasteful to the efficient one. In addition, the alternative energy development also needs to promoted.

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