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SIKLIKALITAS KEBIJAKAN FISKAL DI INDONESIA

Nizar, Muhammad Afdi (2011): SIKLIKALITAS KEBIJAKAN FISKAL DI INDONESIA. Published in: Jurnal Keuangan dan Moneter , Vol. 14, No. 1 (2011): pp. 55-82.

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Abstract

The research objectives are to examine and determine the cyclicality of fiscal policy in Indonesia, based on the response of government revenue, government spending and budget balance to the economic cycles. In addition, this research also aims to determine cyclicality of automatic stabilizers and discretionary fiscal policies. This research was conducted using quantitative approaches, namely regression model which is estimated by ordinary least square (OLS) method. Using quarterly time series data during 1970 – 2009, the results showed several conclusions : (i) the response of government revenue and income tax as an automatic stabilizer to the economic cycles tend to countercyclical; (ii) the response of government spending and discretionary variables tend to procyclical; and (iii) response of budget balance tends to acyclical.

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