ALIRAN MODAL MASUK (CAPITAL INFLOWS) DAN IMPLIKASINYA BAGI PEREKONOMIAN INDONESIA

Nizar, Muhammad Afdi (2007): ALIRAN MODAL MASUK (CAPITAL INFLOWS) DAN IMPLIKASINYA BAGI PEREKONOMIAN INDONESIA. Published in: Kajian Ekonomi dan Keuangan , Vol. 11, No. 3 (September 2007): pp. 130-155.

Abstract

Perkembangan aliran modal masuk neto (net capital inflows) menuju negara-negara emerging economies di kawasan Asia, baik pada masa sebelum krisis maupun setelah krisis turut mewarnai perkembangan aliran modal masuk neto ke Indonesia. Tulisan ini mencoba menganalisa perkembangan aliran modal masuk ke kawasan Asia dan dampaknya terhadap konfigurasi aliran modal masuk ke Indonesia dalam periode 1990 – 2006. Untuk memudahkan analisa, periode studi dikelompokkan menjadi tiga fase, yaitu (i) fase pertama (1990-1996), yang ditandai dengan aliran modal masuk yang cukup besar; (ii) fase kedua (1997-2003), yaitu fase pembalikan modal (capital outflows atau capital reversal); dan fase ketiga (2004-2006), yang ditandai dengan kembali masuknya modal ke Indonesia. Selain itu, tulisan ini juga menganalisa implikasi yang muncul akibat gelombang aliran modal masuk. Berdasarkan hasil analisa yang dilakukan terlihat bahwa : (i) Aliran modal masuk dalam fase pertama dan ketiga membawa pengaruh yang positif terhadap perbaikan kinerja sejumlah indikator ekonomi makro, seperti investasi dan pertumbuhan ekonomi, neraca modal dan finansial, cadangan devisa, dan pasar modal domestik. Sebaliknya, pada fase kedua, pembalikan modal menyebabkan menurunnya kinerja indikator ekonomi makro tersebut. (ii) Aliran modal masuk berimplikasi negatif terhadap kinerja besaran moneter, yang ditandai dengan terjadinya ekspansi jumlah uang beredar yang berdampak inflatoir, dan sebaliknya pada saat terjadinya pembalikan modal. (iii) Aliran modal masuk menyebabkan terapresiasinya nilai tukar rupiah terhadap US dolar dan cenderung melemah (depresiasi) ketika terjadi pembalikan modal. (iv) Aliran modal yang bersifat temporer, seperti portfolio investment atau hot money, bertendensi menimbulkan tekanan volatilitas bagi perekonomian domestik, karena aliran modal ini sangat rentan terhadap gejolak siklikal atau shocks, yang terjadi di dalam dan luar negeri. Dengan merujuk pada hasil studi ini, pemerintah perlu mendorong peningkatan aliran modal yang bersifat permanen (foreign direct investment, FDI), yang tidak dapat dengan mudah dan cepat keluar dari Indonesia apabila terjadi perubahan atau shocks yang bersifat siklikal. Selain itu, investasi dalam rangka FDI ini sangat dibutuhkan oleh Indonesia tidak saja untuk mendorong peningkatan pertumbuhan ekonomi, melainkan juga dapat membantu mengatasi masalah keterbatasan lapangan kerja, yang pada gilirannya dapat membantu mengatasi masalah pengangguran dan upaya pengentasan kemiskinan yang masih tinggi di dalam negeri.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: The Implications of the Capital Inflows on Indonesian Economy
• Language: Indonesian
• Keywords: capital flows, capital inflows, capital outflows, foreign direct investment, portfolio investment, current accounts, capital accounts, pembalikan modal, depresiasi, apresiasi.
• Subjects: F - International Economics > F2 - International Factor Movements and International Business; F - International Economics > F2 - International Factor Movements and International Business > F21 - International Investment ; Long-Term Capital Movements; F - International Economics > F3 - International Finance; F - International Economics > F3 - International Finance > F38 - International Financial Policy: Financial Transactions Tax; Capital Controls

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