Munich Personal RePEc Archive

Evolving foresight in a small transition economy: The design, use and relevance of foresight methods in Hungary

Havas, Attila (2001): Evolving foresight in a small transition economy: The design, use and relevance of foresight methods in Hungary. Published in: Journal of Forecasting , Vol. 22, No. 2-3 (March 2003): pp. 179-201.

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Abstract

Hungary launched her first foresight programme, TEP in 1997. TEP is a holistic foresight programme, based on both panel activities and a large scale Delphi survey. It has put more emphasis on socio-economic needs than on S&T issues. The paper discusses why to conduct foresight, then describes what has been done (organisation, methods and results), and how methods have evolved in Hungary. Policy and methodological lessons as well as questions for further research are also offered. Heritage of the former system, the transition process itself and the current level of socio-economic development all played a decisive role throughout the programme. For socio-psychological considerations TEP was set up deliberately as a programme controlled by non-governmental experts, and in turn, the Steering Group delegated a great deal of autonomy to the panels. Thus methods were refined continuously. Given the fundamental socio-economic changes in Hungary and the enlargement of the European Union a strong emphasis was put on scenarios – both at macro and panel levels –, and a large number of Delphi-statements featured non-technological issues. To develop qualitatively different visions, as well as to align macro and panel futures, however, proved to be a rather difficult task.

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