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The Determinants of International Migration in Pakistan: New Evidence from Combined Cointegration, Causality and Innovative Accounting Approach

Ahad, Muhammad (2015): The Determinants of International Migration in Pakistan: New Evidence from Combined Cointegration, Causality and Innovative Accounting Approach. Published in: The Economic Research Guardian , Vol. 5, No. 2 (2015): pp. 159-175.

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Abstract

This study investigates the determinants of international migration over the period of 1980-2013 for Pakistan. In order to investigate the relationship between migration, inflation, remittances and unemployment, we have applied Bayer-Hanck combined cointegration to test whether a long run relationship exists between variables or not. The results predict that series are stationary at 1st difference and cointegration exist among variables. VECM Granger causality explains that inflation, remittances and unemployment cause migration in both short and long run. Variance Decomposition Approach shows that unemployment has highest share in explaining migration and migration also has highest share in explaining unemployment in both short run and long run. Policy maker should focus on reduction of unemployment by promoting real sector economic activates to control international migration.

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