Social risk and vulnerability assessment of the hazardous hydrological phenomena in Russia

Zemtsov, Stepan and Baburin, Vyacheslav and Koltermann, Klaus and Krylenko, Inna and Yumina, Natalia and Vladimir, Litvinov (2014): Social risk and vulnerability assessment of the hazardous hydrological phenomena in Russia. Published in: GEOGRAPHY, ENVIRONMENT, SUSTAINABILITY , Vol. 7, No. 4 (17 December 2014): pp. 95-118.

Abstract

Methods and results of social vulnerability and risk assessment are presented in the article. It is explored if modified methodology of the United Nations University (World risk index) can be used on different scale levels: regional, municipal and settlement. It was estimated that, despite the low value of the World risk index for Russia, southern coastal and mountain regions have high values of the risk index for hydrological phenomena because of higher frequency of the hazardous events, higher population density, and high social vulnerability. The Krasnodar region (in the south-western part of Russia) was chosen for a detailed analysis. A municipal risk index was developed, and municipal districts in the Kuban river mouth were identified as territories with the highest risk. For verification of the index results, the percentage of vulnerable people was estimated based on opinion polls. The results can be used in further risk calculation for other hazardous phenomena.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: social vulnerability, hazardous hydrological phenomena, risk assessment, Russian regions, coastal areas
• Subjects: Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q5 - Environmental Economics > Q51 - Valuation of Environmental Effects; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q5 - Environmental Economics > Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters and Their Management ; Global Warming; R - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics > R1 - General Regional Economics > R19 - Other

References

Baburin, V., Kasimov, N. and Goryachko, M. (2009). Development of the Black Sea Coast of Caucasus in the Conditions of Changes of the Nature and Society. Proceedings of the 9th international conference on the Mediterranean coastal environment. Sochi.

Birkmann, J. (2007). Risk and vulnerability indicators at different scales: applicability, usefulness and policy implications. Environmental Hazards, N 7(1), pp. 20-31.

Birkmann, J., Cardona, O. D., Carreno, M. L., Barbat, A. H., Pelling, M., Schneiderbauer, S. & Welle, T. 2013. Framing vulnerability, risk and societal responses: the MOVE framework. Natural hazards, N 67(2), pp. 193-211.

Damm, M. (2010). Mapping Social-Ecological Vulnerability to Flooding. A Sub-National Approach for Germany. Graduate Research Series vol. 3. UNU-EHS. Bonn.

EMERCOM. (2007). The Method for Determining of the Damage that Can Affect Life and Health of Persons, Property of People and Entities as a Result of Shipping Waterworks Accident (in Russian: Методика определения размера вреда, который может быть причинен жизни, здоровью физических лиц, имуществу физических и юридических лиц в результате аварии судоходных гидротехнических сооружений). Moscow.

Fuchs, S., Birkmann, J. and Glade, T. (2012). Vulnerability assessment in natural hazard and risk analysis: current approaches and future challenges. Natural Hazards, N 1-7.

Fuchs, S., Kuhlicke C., and Meyer, V. (2011). Editorial for the special issue: vulnerability to natural hazards—the challenge of integration. Natural Hazards, N 58(2), pp. 609-619.

Gladkevich, G, Frolova, N. and Terskiy, P. (2011). Complex Multifactorial Risk Assessment of Flooding in Russia (in Russian: Комплексная многофакторная оценка опасности наводнений в России). In The Resources and quality of surface waters: evaluation, prognosis and management. Moscow.

Guriev, S. (2009). Myths of Economics (in Russian: Мифы экономики). Moscow: Alpina Business Books.

Miagkov, S. (1995). Geography of natural risk (in Russian: География природных рисков). Moscow. MSU. 224 p.

Ministry of Finance. (2011). Calculation of the distribution of subventions from the federal compensation fund in 2011 in the field of water relations between the subjects of the Russian Federation (in Russian: Расчет распределения между субъектами Российской Федерации субвенций из Федерального фонда компенсаций на 2011 год для осуществления отдельных полномочий Российской Федерации в области водных отношений). Moscow.

Mrozek, J. R. and Taylor, L. O. (2002). What determines the value of life? A meta‐analysis. Journal of Policy analysis and Management, N 21(2), pp. 253-270.

Petrova, E. (2006). Vulnerability of Russian regions to natural risk: experience of quantitative assessment. Natural Hazards & Earth System Sciences, N 6(6).

Russian Federal Sate statistical service. (2012). Database of municipalities (in Russian: База данных показателей муниципальных образований). URL: http://www.gks.ru/dbscripts/munst/munst.htm

Shoygu, S., Bolov, V., Komedchikov, N. and Trokhina, N. (Ed.). (2010). Atlas of natural and technological hazards and risks of emergencies in the Russian Federation (in Russian: Атлас природных и техногенных опасностей и рисков чрезвычайных ситуаций Российской Федерации). Moscow. Design. Information. Cartography. 696 p.

Taratunin, A. (2008). Floods in the Russian Federation (in Russian: Наводнения на территории Российской Федерации). Yekaterinburg: FSUE RosNIIVH. 432 p.

Viscusi, W. K., Aldy, J. E. (2003). The value of a statistical life: a critical review of market estimates throughout the world. Journal of risk and uncertainty, N 27(1), pp. 5-76.

World Risk Report. (2011). Bundnis Entwicklung Hilft. Bonn.

Zemtsov, S., Kidyaeva, V. and Fadeev, M. (2013). Socio-economic risk assessment of flooding for Russian coastal regions. In ERSA conference papers (No. ersa13p1271). European Regional Science Association.

Zemtsov, S., Krylenko, I. and Yumina, N. (2012). Socio-economic Assessment of Flood Risk in Coastal Areas of the Azov-Black Sea Coast in the Krasnodar Region (in Russian: Социально-экономическая оценка риска наводнений в прибрежных зонах Азово-Черноморского побережья Краснодарского края). In Koltermann K.P., Dobrolyubov, S.A. (Ed.). The Environmental and social risks in the coastal zone of the Black Sea and Azov Sea. Moscow: Publishing House of Triumph.