Munich Personal RePEc Archive

Social risk and vulnerability assessment of the hazardous hydrological phenomena in Russia

Zemtsov, Stepan and Baburin, Vyacheslav and Koltermann, Klaus and Krylenko, Inna and Yumina, Natalia and Vladimir, Litvinov (2014): Social risk and vulnerability assessment of the hazardous hydrological phenomena in Russia. Published in: GEOGRAPHY, ENVIRONMENT, SUSTAINABILITY , Vol. 7, No. 4 (17 December 2014): pp. 95-118.


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Methods and results of social vulnerability and risk assessment are presented in the article. It is explored if modified methodology of the United Nations University (World risk index) can be used on different scale levels: regional, municipal and settlement. It was estimated that, despite the low value of the World risk index for Russia, southern coastal and mountain regions have high values of the risk index for hydrological phenomena because of higher frequency of the hazardous events, higher population density, and high social vulnerability. The Krasnodar region (in the south-western part of Russia) was chosen for a detailed analysis. A municipal risk index was developed, and municipal districts in the Kuban river mouth were identified as territories with the highest risk. For verification of the index results, the percentage of vulnerable people was estimated based on opinion polls. The results can be used in further risk calculation for other hazardous phenomena.

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