Winter Transport via Trucks with Chains and the Fraction of Time Spent in Accidents

Batabyal, Amitrajeet (2015): Winter Transport via Trucks with Chains and the Fraction of Time Spent in Accidents. Published in: Theoretical Economics Letters , Vol. 5, (29 December 2015): pp. 805-809.

Abstract

In this note, we analyze hitherto unstudied aspects of winter transport provision via trucks with chains on tires. Specifically, we first construct a discrete-time Markov chain (DTMC) model of transport provision that focuses on the movements of a representative truck in a firm’s fleet of trucks. Second, we specify the limiting probabilities of our DTMC model of truck transport. Third, we derive the fraction of time that the representative truck is involved in accidents. Finally, we solve an optimization problem whose solution tells us when the fraction of time the representative truck spends in accidents, is maximal.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Accident, Tire Chain, Transport, Truck, Uncertainty
• Subjects: D - Microeconomics > D8 - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty > D81 - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty; R - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics > R4 - Transportation Economics > R41 - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion ; Travel Time ; Safety and Accidents ; Transportation Noise

References

Anonymous. 1953. Use of tire chains advised by state, New York Times, November 7.

Anonymous. 1963. Tips for winter motorists, New York Times, December 29.

Arentze, T., Feng, T., Timmermans, H., and Robroeks, J. 2012. Context-dependent influence of road attributes and pricing policies in route choice behavior of truck drivers: Results of a conjoint choice experiment, Transportation, 39, 1173-1188.

Cantor, D.E., Corsi, T.M., Grimm, C.M., and Ozpolat, K. 2010. A driver focused truck crash prediction model, Transportation Research Part E, 46, 683-692.

Cobb, J.G. 2002. A turning point for big trucks, New York Times, February 3.

Fisher, P. 2005. Ch-ch-chains, Tire Business, November 7.

Golob, T.E., and Hensher, D.A. 1996. Driving behavior of long distance truck drivers: The effects of schedule compliance on drug use and speeding citations, International Journal of Transport Economics, 23, 267-301.

Guest, M., Boggess, M.M., and Duke, J.M. 2014. Age related annual crash incidence rate ratios in professional drivers of heavy goods vehicles, Transportation Research Part A, 65, 1-8.

Ross, S.M. 2003. Introduction to Probability Models, 8th edition. Academic Press, San Diego, CA.

Tijms, H.C. 2003. A First Course in Stochastic Models. Wiley, Chichester, UK.