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Cycle-Trend Dichotomy of the Dutch Disease Phenomenon

Boufateh, Talel (2016): Cycle-Trend Dichotomy of the Dutch Disease Phenomenon.

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Abstract

This paper aims to study the simultaneous effects of Dutsh Disease (DD) phenomenon on the industrial and agricultural sectors for five oilexporting countries with different development levels. To proceed, we propose to study the dynamic relationship between oil rent, industrial added value and agricultural added value in a structural multivariate framework. The idea is to capture both short and long term dynamics of this relationship, by performing the model’s cycle-trend dichotomy using SVECM approach. The results have shown that the DD phenomenon effects both agricultural and industrial sectors in the considered countries with one exception for each sector. The impacts and adverse effects that might have the DD phenomenon on each sector accordingly whether it is permanent or transient, depend on the economy nature and the strategy adopted. The findings confirmed that the DD phenomenon affecting the industrial sector ephemerally however the agricultural sector is rather being affected in the long term.The results also, have indicated that developing countries notably Morocco, is model to consolidate, and that the case of great emerging countr

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