A Stochastic Model of Migrant Rescue in the Mediterranean Sea

Batabyal, Amitrajeet and Beladi, Hamid (2016): A Stochastic Model of Migrant Rescue in the Mediterranean Sea. Published in: Regional Science Inquiry , Vol. 8, No. 1 (1 June 2016): pp. 79-83.

Abstract

We theoretically study the rescue of destitute migrants seeking to reach Europe on boats across the Mediterranean Sea. To this end, we first construct a discrete-time Markov chain (DTMC) model of a stylized rescue process. Second, we specify the one-step transition probabilities of the DTMC. Third, we delineate a recursive algorithm that can be used to compute the limiting or steady-state probabilities of our DTMC model. Finally, we use these limiting probabilities to compute the average throughput. This metric is an efficiency measure and it tells us the long run expected number of migrants that are rescued by the stylized rescue process under study.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Markov Chain, Mediterranean Sea, Migrant, Rescue, Uncertainty
• Subjects: D - Microeconomics > D8 - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty > D81 - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty; J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J6 - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers > J61 - Geographic Labor Mobility ; Immigrant Workers

References

Anonymous. 2014. A surge from the sea: Illegal migration is causing strains across the continent, The Economist, August 16.

Anonymous. 2015. Europe’s boat people: For those in peril, The Economist, April 25.

D’Emilio, F., and Corder, M. 2015. Italy: At least 40 migrants dead at sea, 320 others rescued, Washington Post, August 15.

Haake, C.J., Krieger, T., and Minter, S. 2013. On the institutional design of burden sharing when financing external border enforcement in the EU, International Economics and Economic Policy, 10, 583-612.

Kanter, J. 2015. E.U. agrees to naval intervention on migrant smugglers, New York Times, May 18.

Phillip, A. 2015. Watch the ‘heart-stopping’ moment rescuers pull drowning migrants out of the Mediterranean Sea, Washington Post, August 6.

Pianigiani, G. 2015. Hundreds of migrants rescued after boat capsizes off Libya, New York Times, August 5.

Ross, S.M. 2014. Introduction to Probability Models, 11th edition. Academic Press, Amsterdam, The Netherlands. Tijms, H.C. 2003. A First Course in Stochastic Models. Wiley, Chichester, UK.

Yardley, J., and Povoledo, E. 2015. Mediterranean shipwreck kills 40 before a rescue, New York Times, May 5.