Ahmad, Munir and Nawaz, Muhammad and Iqbal, Muhammad and Javed, Sajid (2014): Analysing the Impact of Climate Change on Rice Productivity in Pakistan.
Preview |
PDF
MPRA_paper_72861.pdf Download (477kB) | Preview |
Abstract
This study, applying Fixed Effect Model (FEM), analyses the impact of climate change on yield of fine and coarse rice in Pakistan using district-level panel data for the period of 19872010. The evidence suggests that climate change significantly affects yield of both types of rice crops. The impact varies across different phenological stages of the crop in magnitude as well as direction. Precipitation forms a statistically significant non-linear relationship with yield for both types of rice. No evidence, however, was found for presence of non-linear temperature effects. Additionally, fertilizer use plays a significant role in enhancing yield in case of Basmati rice only
Item Type: | MPRA Paper |
---|---|
Original Title: | Analysing the Impact of Climate Change on Rice Productivity in Pakistan |
English Title: | Analysing the Impact of Climate Change on Rice Productivity in Pakistan |
Language: | English |
Keywords: | Climate change, Rice, Productivity |
Subjects: | Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q1 - Agriculture > Q15 - Land Ownership and Tenure ; Land Reform ; Land Use ; Irrigation ; Agriculture and Environment |
Item ID: | 72861 |
Depositing User: | Dr. Munir Ahmad |
Date Deposited: | 10 Aug 2016 08:35 |
Last Modified: | 27 Sep 2019 14:29 |
References: | Adams, R M., B. A. McCarl, D. J. Dudek, and J. D. Glyer (1988) Implications of Global Climate Change for Western Agriculture. Western Journal of Agricultural Economics 13:2, 348–356. Adams, R. M., B. A. McCarl, and L. O. Mearns (2003) The Effects of Spatial Scale of Climate Scenarios on Economic Assessments: An Examples from U.S. Agriculture. Climatic Change 60, 131–148. Aggarwal, P. K. and V. K. Mannava Sivakumar (2011) Global Climate Change and Food Security in South Asia: An Adaptation and Mitigation Framework. In R. Lal, M. V. K. Sivakumar, S. M. A. Faiz, A. H. M. M. Rahman, and K. R. Islam (eds.) Climate Change and Food Security in South Asia. 253–275. Ahmad, M. and A. Ahmad (1998) An Analysis of the Sources of Wheat Output Growth in the Barani Area of the Punjab. The Pakistan Development Review 37:3, 231–249. Ahmad, M. and B. E. Bravo-Ureta (1995a) An Econometrics Decomposition of Dairy Output Growth. American Journal Agriculture Economics 77, 914–921. Ahmad, M. and B. E. Bravo-Ureta (1995b) Technical Efficiency Measures for Dairy Farms Using Panel Data: A Comparison of Alternative Model Specifications. The Journal of Productivity Analysis 7, 399–415. Ahmad, M. and G. E. Battese (1997) A Probit Analysis of the Incidence of the Cotton Leaf Curl Virus in Punjab, Pakistan. The Pakistan Development Review 36:2, 155–169. Ahmad, M., M. Iqbal, and A. M. Khan (2013) Farmers’ Perceptions and Adaptations” Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security in Pakistan: Adaptations Options and Strategies. Climate Change Brief, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE). Asteriou, D. and S. G. Hall (2000) Applied Econometrics: A Modern Approach Using EViews and Microfit. Palgrave Macmillan. Auffhammer, A., V. Ramanathan, and J. R. Vincent (2012) Climate Change, and the Monsoon, and Rice Yield in India. Climate Change 111, 411–424. Auffhammer, M., V. Ramanathan, and R. J. Vincent (2006) Integrated Model Shows that Atmospheric Brown Clouds and Greenhouse Gases have Reduced Rice Harvests in India. PNAS 103:52, 19669. Balochistan, Government of (Various Issues) Development Statistics. Provincial Bureau of Statistics, Balochistan. Baltagi, B. H. (2005) Econometric Analysis of Panel Data. West Sussex: John Wiley and Sons. Barnwal, P. and K. Kotani (2010) Impact of Variation in Climatic Factors on Crop Yield: A Case of Rice Crop in Andhra Pradesh, India. IUJ Research Institute, International University of Japan, Economics & Management Series EMS-2010-17. Cabas, J., A. Weersink, and E. Olale (2010) Crop Yield Response to Economic, Site and Climatic Variables. Climatic Change 101, 599–616. Cassman, K. G. and P. L. Pingali (1993) Extrapolating Trends from Long-Term Experiments to Farmers Fields: The Case of Irrigated Rice Systems in Asia. In Proceedings of the Working Conference on “Measuring Sustainability Using Long-Term Experiments”. Rothamsted Experimental Station, 28–30 April. Cheng, C. and Chang (2002) The Potential Impact of Climate Change on Taiwan’s Agriculture. Agricultural Economics 27, 51–64. Cicerone, R. J. and J. D. Shetter (1981) Sources of Atmospheric Methane: Measurements in Rice Paddies and a Discussion. Journal of Geophysical Research 86:C8, 7203–7209. Cline, William R. (1996) The Impact of Global Warming of Agriculture: Comment. The American Economic Review 86:5, 1309–1311. Felkner, J., K. Tazhibayeva, and R. Townsend (2009) Impact of Climate Change on Rice Production in Thailand. American Economic Review: Papers & Proceedings 99:2, 205–210. Gbetibouo, G. A. and R. M. Hassan (2005) Measuring the Economic Impact of Climate Change on Major South African Field Crops: A Ricardian Approach. Global and Planetary Change 47, 143–152. Geologocal Society of America (GSA) (2007) Managing Drought: A Roadmap for Change in the United States, A Conference Report from Managing Drought and Water Scarcity in Vulnerable Environments-Creating a Roadmap for Change in the United States, Longmont, CO, 18-20 September, 2006. Guiteras, Raymond (2009) The Impact of Climate Change on Indian Agriculture.Department of Economics, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland. (Manuscript). Hansen, L. (1991) Farmer Response to Changes in Climate: The Case of Corn Production. Journal of Agricultural Economics Research 43:4, 18–25. Hendry, D. F. and H-M. Krolzig (2004) We Ran One Regression. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 66:5, 799–810. Hoover, K. D. and S. J. Perez (2004) Truth and Robustness in Cross-country Growth Regressions. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 66:5, 765–798. Hussain, M. S. (1964) Export Potential of Fine Rice of Pakistan. The Pakistan Development Review 4:4, 665–706. IPCC (2007) Summary of the Policymakers. In S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K. B. Averyt, M. Tignor, and H. L. Miller (eds.) Climate Change (2007) The Physical Science basis. Contribution of the Working group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Islam, S. M., A. A. Mahbub, and S. M. Islam (2011) Cool Rice for a Warmer Environment: Concept, Progress and Prospect-Bangladesh Perspective. Presented at International Conference on Global Climate Change and its Effects…held on 25-30 August 2008 at Dhaka, Bangladesh, published in Dinar, A. and Mendelsohn, R. “Handbook on Climate Change and Agriculture”, pp.423–431. IWMI (International Water Management Institute) (2000) World Water Supply and Demand. Colombo: IWMI, Sri Lanka. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Government of (formerly NWFP), (Various Issues) Development Statistics. Provincial Bureau of Statistics, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (formerly NWFP). Kim, M. K. and A. Pang (2009) Climate Change Impact on Rice Yield and Production Risk. Journal of Rural Development 32:2, 17–29. Lea, Jaehyuk, Denis Nadolnyak, and Valentina Hartarska (2012) Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Production Asian Countries: Evidence from Panel Study. Selected paper presented all the Southern Agricultural economics Association, Annual Meeting, Birmingham, Al, Feb. 4-7, 2012.3. Lobell, B. D. and B. C. Field (2007) Global Scale Climate Crop Yield Relationships and the Impacts of Recent Warming. Environmental Research Letter 2, 1–7. Lobell, B. D., J. Ivan Ortiz-Monasterio, Gregory P. Asner, Pamela A. Matson, Rosamond L. Naylor, and Walter P. Falcon (2005) Analysis of Wheat Yield and Climatic Trends in Mexico. Field Crops Research 94:2, 250–256. Ludwig, F. and S. Asseng (2006) Climate Change Impacts on Wheat Production in a Mediterranean Environment in Western Australia. Agricultural Systems 90:1–3, 159–179. Ludwig, F., P. Milory Stephen, and Senthold Asseng (2009) Impacts of Recent Climate Change on Wheat Production Systems in Western Australia. Climatic Change 92:3-4, 495–517. Luo, Qunying, Martin A. J. Williams, William Bellotti, and Brett Bryan (2003) Quantitative and Visual Assessments of Climate Change Impacts on South Australian Wheat Production. Agricultural Systems 77:3, 173–186. Luo, Qunying, William Bellotti, Martin Williams, and Brett Bryan (2005) Potential Impact of Climate Change on Wheat Yield in South Australia. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 132:3, 273–285. Magrin, Graciela O., María I. Travasso, and Gabriel R. Rodríguez (2005) Changes in Climate and Crop Production during the 20th Century in Argentina. Climatic Change 72:1-2, 229–249. Matsushima, S., H. Ikewada, A. Meada, S. Honda, and H. Niki (1982) Studies on Rice Cultivation in the Tropics. 1. Yielding and ripening Response of the Rice Plant to Extremely Hot and Dry Climate in Sudan. Japanese Journal of Tropical Agriculture 26, 19–25. McCarl, B. A., X. Villavicencio, and X. Wu (2008) Climate Change and Future Analysis: Is Stationarity Dying? American Journal of Agricultural Economics 90:5, 1241–7. Mendelsohn, R. and A. Dinar (1999) Climate Change, Agriculture, and Developing Countries: Does Adaptations Matter? The World Bank Research Observer 14:2, 277–293. Mendelsohn, R., D. W. Nordhaus, and D. Shaw (1994) The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: A Ricardian Analysis. The American Economic Review 84:4, 753–771. National Fertiliser Development Center (NFDC) (Various Issues) Fertiliser Use Survey at Farm Level in Pakistan. Islamabad: Planning and Development Division, Government of Pakistan. Nordhaus, W. D. (1977) Economic Growth and Climate: The Case of Carbon Dioxide. The American Economic Review 67:1, Papers and Proceedings of the Eighty-ninth Annual Meeting of the American Economic Association (Feb., 1977), pp. 341–346. Pakistan, Government of (Various Issues) Crops Area and Production (By Districts). Islamabad: Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Livestock, Government of Pakistan. Pakistan, Government of (Various Issues) Economic Survey. Islamabad: Economic Adviser’s Wing, Finance Division. Parry, M. L., C. Rosenzweig, A. Iglesias, M. Livermore, and G. Fischer (2004) Effects of Climate Change on Global Food Production under SRES Emissions and Socio-economic Scenarios. Global Environmental Change 14:1, 53–67. Pingali, P. L., M. Hussain, and R. Gerpacio (1997) Rice Bowls of Asia: The Returning Crisis? Wallingford, UK: International Rice Research Institute/ Commonwealth Agricultural Bureau. Punjab, Government of (Various Issues) Development Statistics. Provincial Bureau of Statistics, Punjab. Quiggin, John C. and John K. Horowitz (1999) The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: A Ricardian Analysis-Comment. American Economic Review 89:4, 1044–1045. Ramanathan, V. (2006) Atmospheric Brown Clouds: Health, Climate and Agriculture Impacts. Interactions between Global Change and Human Health Pontifical Academy of Sciences, Scripta Varia 106. Rehan, R. and M. Nehdi (2005) Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Climate Change: Policy Implications for the Cement Industry. Environmental Science and Policy 8:2, 105–114. Reinsborough, M. J. (2003) A Ricardian Model of Climate Change in Canada. Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue 36, 21–40. Sarker, A. R. M. (2012) Impacts of Climate Change on Rice Production and Farmers’ Adaptation in Bangladesh. PhD Thesis, submitted in University of Southern Queensland, Australia. Segerson, K. and B. L. Dixon (1999) Climate Change and Agriculture: The Role of Farmer Adaptation. In R. Mendelsohn and J. E. Neumann (eds.) The Impact of Climate Change on the United States Economy. Chap 4. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 75–93. Seo, Niggolo S. (2010) A Micro Econometric Analysis of Adapting Portfolio to Climate Change: Adoption of Agricultural System in Latin America. Applied Economic Perspective and Policy 32:3, 489–514. Siddiqui, R., G. Samad, M. Nasir, and Hanzla H. Jalil (2012) The Impact of Climate Change on Major Agricultural Crops: Evidence from Punjab, Pakistan. The Pakistan Development Review 51:4. Sindh, Government of (Various Issues) Development Statistics. Provincial Bureau of Statistics, Sindh. Stock, J. H. and M. W. Watson (2003) Introduction to Econometrics. Singapore: Pearson Education. Tubiello, F. N., C. Rosenzweig, R. A. Goldberg, S. Jagtap, and J. W. Jones (2002) Effects of Climate Change on US Crop Production: Simulation Results using Two Different GCM Scenarios. Part I: Wheat, Potato, Maize, and Citrus. Climate Research 20:3, 259–270. Tuong, T. P. and B. A. M. Bouman (2003) Rice Production in Water-scarce Environment. Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture Series. Wallingford, UK: CABI Publishing. Weber, M. and G. Hauer (2003) A Regional Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on Canadian Agriculture. Canadian Public Policy 29:2, 163–180. Weersink, A., J. H. Cabas, and E. Olale (2010) Acreage Response to Weather, Yield, and Price. Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics 58:1, 57–72. Welch, R. J., R. J. Vincentb, M. Auffhammer, F. P. Moyae, A. Dobermannf, and D. Daweg (2010) Rice Yields in Tropical/subtropical Asia Exhibit Large but Opposing Sensitivities to Minimum and Maximum Temperatures. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the Unite States of America (PNAS) 107:33, 14562–14567. Wooldridge, J. M. (2009) Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach. Mason, USA: South-Western Publications. Yoshida, S. (1981) Fundamental of Rice Crop Science. International Rice Research Institute, Los Banos, Philippines, pp. 269. Ziska, H. L. (2011) Climate Change, Carbon Dioxide and Global Crop Production: Food Security and Uncertainty. In A. Dinar and R. Mendelsohn (eds.) Handbook on Climate Change and Agriculture. pp. 9–31. |
URI: | https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/id/eprint/72861 |