Theoretical Model to Estimate System Uncertainty in Economics

Kuzmin, Evgeny A. (2016): Theoretical Model to Estimate System Uncertainty in Economics. Published in: Information , Vol. 19, No. 7A (July 2016): pp. 2577-2588.

Abstract

The purpose of this article - more precisely definition for the approach to a quantitative assessment of the system uncertainty in view of identified methodological assumptions. According to academic ideas in today's economic studies, all cases of represented uncertainty are usually divided into three groups, i.e. the environmental uncertainty, the decision-making uncertainty and the uncertainty of consequences from made decisions. Such kinds of unpredictability only cover a part of an economic cooperation. There are aspects in place that go beyond the conventional view. Their synthesis through the prism of the system uncertainty is a pressing research objective. Prerequisites have been identified that contribute into method justification and specify the requirements to it; an approach to the estimation has been presented in a formalized way with a specified number of essential points. The content of common uncertainty errors has been also revealed. In the approach development, as a result, existing uncertainty circles (cycles) have been recognised.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: System uncertainty, Group of polensive entropy, Group of singular entropy, Uncertainty circle.
• Subjects: D - Microeconomics > D8 - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty > D81 - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

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