Munich Personal RePEc Archive

Economics and How Obama Could Have Lost the 2016 Election Too

Wu, Cheng (2016): Economics and How Obama Could Have Lost the 2016 Election Too.

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Abstract

During the 2016 U.S. election, many voters from democratic (‘blue wall’) states, which have voted consistently in the past elections for the democrats, suddenly moved back into the Republican fold. During this election, the primary economic issue was supposed to be NAFTA, both Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump claimed it has been responsible for U.S. manufacturing job losses. So, what is the effect of trade on personal income and in particular manufacturing income and employment? Still, manufacturing losses are unlikely to explain democratic losses in rural areas, such as Wisconsin, where farm voters switched parties. What is the relationship between farm income and election result? Finally, are farmers Republican, Democrat or Independent? Or just pragmatic?

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