Munich Personal RePEc Archive

Do some teams consistently underperform against same opponents? - The curious case of the Croatian football league

Globan, Tomislav and Jägers, Ed (2016): Do some teams consistently underperform against same opponents? - The curious case of the Croatian football league.

This is the latest version of this item.

[img]
Preview
PDF
MPRA_paper_75213.pdf

Download (4MB) | Preview

Abstract

This paper aims to determine if there are any matchups in 1.HNL that are characterized by the consistent over- or underperformance by one club against the other over the long run. If so, the study aims to test how significant these deviations are. To answer this question, we analyze over 5000 matches and all matchups that had ever taken place in 1.HNL, from seasons 1992 to 2015/16. We compare the realized number of points won by the teams in each matchup with the number of points each team was expected to win against the same opponent. To construct the expected number of points, we use the ClubElo formula that utilizes the Elo ranking system to measure the relative strength of teams. The results of our analysis indicate that one matchup extremely deviates from the expected distribution of points between the teams, and that matchup is Lokomotiva - Dinamo.

Available Versions of this Item

UB_LMU-Logo
MPRA is a RePEc service hosted by
the Munich University Library in Germany.