Munich Personal RePEc Archive

The Stock-Bond Comovements and Cross-Market Trading

Li, Mengling and Zheng, Huanhuan and Chong, Terence Tai Leung and Zhang, Yang (2016): The Stock-Bond Comovements and Cross-Market Trading. Published in: Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control , Vol. 73, (1 December 2016): pp. 417-438.

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Abstract

We propose an asset pricing model with heterogeneous agents allocating capital to the stock and bond markets to optimize their portfolios, utilizing the dynamic interaction between the two markets. While some agents focus on the stock market and have more expertise in it, the others specialize in the bond market. Based on their comparative advantages in a particular market, heterogeneous agents constantly revise their investment portfolios by taking into account the time-varying stock-bond return comovements and the changing market conditions. Agents’ collective investment behavior shapes the stock-bond interlinkage, which feedbacks on their subsequent capital allocations. Using monthly US stock and bond data from January 1990 to June 2014, we estimate the vector autoregression model with threshold and Markov switching mechanisms. We find evidence in support of flight-to-quality and show that it is mainly driven by the technical traders who actively sell stocks and buy bonds during periods of high market uncertainty.

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