Munich Personal RePEc Archive

Estimating the Likelihood of Winning Parliamentary Constituencies

Borooah, Vani (2014): Estimating the Likelihood of Winning Parliamentary Constituencies. Published in: Votes, Parties, and Seats No. Palgrave Macmillan, London (July 2015): pp. 45-76.

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Borooah compares the two major protagonists in Indian elections – the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Indian National Congress (INC) with respect to their respective probabilities of winning constituency battles. He provides estimates of such probabilities and shows how these differ between the BJP and the INC both with respect to marginal constituencies and with respect to all constituencies where the BJP and the INC went ‘head-to-head’. Lastly, he considers the electoral performances of the INC and the BJP separately for the Hindi-speaking and the non-Hindi speaking major Indian states.

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