Munich Personal RePEc Archive

Incumbents, Challengers and Electoral Risk

Borooah, Vani (2014): Incumbents, Challengers and Electoral Risk. Published in: Votes, Parties, and Seats No. Palgrave Macmillan, London (July 2015): pp. 77-96.

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Borooah develops a methodology, based on Bayes’ theorem, for evaluating the electoral risk associated with being the incumbent party, as opposed to being a challenger party, in a constituency. His overall conclusion is that there is no obvious way of measuring the degree of anti-incumbency, or its obverse, pro-incumbency. There are at least four measures based on the likelihood of winning. Which measure is appropriate depends on what one is trying to establish.

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