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Shale and the US Economy: Three Counterfactuals

Arora, Vipin (2017): Shale and the US Economy: Three Counterfactuals.

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Abstract

I use three different—and simple—counterfactuals to approximate the real GDP and employment effects of US oil and gas production from shale over the 2011 to 2015 period. Real GDP growth would have been 0.7 to 0.2 percentage points lower on average each year over that period without such increases; employment growth 0.5 to 0.1 percentage points lower.

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