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Delincuencia, Pobreza y Crecimiento Económico en México, ¿existe una relación asimétrica?

Cortez, Willy W. and Islas-Camargo, Alejandro (2017): Delincuencia, Pobreza y Crecimiento Económico en México, ¿existe una relación asimétrica? Forthcoming in: (September 2017)

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Abstract

This essay evaluates the relationship between crime and GDP growth rates controlling by the proportion of people that cannot purchase the basic food basket with their labor income. Following recent studies we demonstrate that the relationship between crime and economic performance is not time invariant. We estimate the response coefficient using a Markov Switching model. Our results indicate that when GDP is in the expansion's regime, crime growth rates become positive; while when GDP is in the stagnation's regime, crime growth rates turn negative. Another of the findings is that an increase in the proportion of people that earn less than the cost of the basic food basket, growth rate of robberies increase. The latter effect is stronger when the economy shows a relative economic growth.

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