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Analyse de la Soutenabilité de la Dette Extérieure de la Tunisie pour la Période 1970-2012

Slimani, Slah and Othmani, Abdelhafidh and Bakari, Sayef (2015): Analyse de la Soutenabilité de la Dette Extérieure de la Tunisie pour la Période 1970-2012.

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The ultimate concern of States' economic policies is to mobilize domestic and external financing resources to stimulate investment and growth without jeopardizing medium- and long-term fiscal sustainability. It is agreed that the risk incurred is to pursue an expansionary fiscal policy that does not ensure the sustainability of the debt, essentially the external debt. To avoid this risk, the government must adhere to three principles: the temporary increase in public spending through the tax bill and domestic and foreign debt, targeting high-return investment spending, and respecting the conditions of the sustainability of the debts granted. Through this paper, it is proposed to analyze the sustainability of the Tunisian foreign debt for the period 1970-2012 in order to frame the orientations of the State and the stakes involved in MLT. For our part, we return to a profound examination of the problem of foreign debt, based on their historical evolution since independence. This descriptive analysis allowed us to draw some conclusions. Tunisia's use of external indebtedness is explained by two stylized facts: national savings do not make it possible to finance the needs of investments that create growth, the structural deficit of the current account due to the net foreign currency holdings, Mostly external indebtedness and the increase in debt servicing, which is only used to finance productive and profitable investments. Also, it seems clearer to the government to resort more to taxation instead of external debt, essentially, in terms of direct taxation by fighting against tax evasion. Similarly, it seems very useful to re-examine the distribution of public expenditure in favor of growth-oriented expenditure at the expense of certain administrative expenditure and to make the national banking system and the financial market more efficient to ensure the efficient 'economy.

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