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Chocs budgétaires et dynamique économique en Tunisie sous une approche de type VAR Structurel

Slimani, Slah (2017): Chocs budgétaires et dynamique économique en Tunisie sous une approche de type VAR Structurel.

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Abstract

To evaluate the effectiveness of fiscal policy in Tunisia, we use the SVAR approach based on the work of Blanchard and Perotti (2002). Our paper shows the short-term macroeconomic efficiency of a structural increase in budgetary expenditure in Tunisia with a budget multiplier close to 2.7%, in line with the Keynesians models. However, the estimated effect of a structural increase in tax revenues on activity is non-Keynesian (increase in the level of economic activity). This is explained by the presence of the voracity effect in the case of the Tunisian economy. Thus, a structural shock in tax revenues leads to a rapid and immediate adjustment of budgetary expenditure, which neutralizes the recessionary effect of the tax increase on economic activity in Tunisia.

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