Simple vs. Complex Carbohydrate Dietary Patterns and the Global Overweight and Obesity Pandemic

Ferretti, Fabrizio and Mariani, Michele (2017): Simple vs. Complex Carbohydrate Dietary Patterns and the Global Overweight and Obesity Pandemic. Published in: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health , Vol. 10, No. 14 (4 October 2017): pp. 2-12.

Abstract

Nowadays, obesity and being overweight are among the major global health concerns. Many, diet-related diseases impose high tangible and intangible costs, and threaten the sustainability of health-care systems worldwide. In this study, we model, at the macroeconomic level, the impact of energy intake from different types of carbohydrates on the population’s BMI (body mass index). We proceed in three steps. First, we develop a framework to analyse both the consumption choices between simple and complex carbohydrates and the effects of these choices on people health conditions. Second, we collect figures for 185 countries (over the period 2012–2014) regarding the shares of simple (sugar and sweetener) and complex (cereal) carbohydrates in each country’s total dietary energy supply. Third, we use regression techniques to: (1) estimate the impact of these shares on the country’s prevalence of obesity and being overweight; (2) compute for each country an indicator of dietary pattern based on the ratio between simple and complex carbohydrates, weighted by their estimated effects on the prevalence of obesity and being overweight; and (3) measure the elasticity of the prevalence of obesity and being overweight with respect to changes in both carbohydrate dietary pattern and income per capita. We find that unhealthy eating habits and the associated prevalence of excessive body fat accumulation tend to behave as a ‘normal good’ in low, medium- and high-HDI (Human Development Index) countries, but as an ‘inferior good’ in very high-HDI countries.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Keywords: carbohydrates; dietary patterns; human development; overweight and obesity; nutrition transition
• Subjects: I - Health, Education, and Welfare > I1 - Health > I15 - Health and Economic Development

References

1. GBD 2015 Obesity Collaborators. Health effects of overweight and obesity in 195 countries over 25 years. N. Engl. J. Med. 2017, 377, 13–27, doi:10.1056/NEJMoa1614362.

2. World Health Organization (WHO). Obesity and overweight—Fact sheet. WHO. Available online: http://www.who.int/ mediacentre/ factsheets/fs311/en/ (accessed on 6 May 2017).

3. World Health Organization (WHO). Global Status Report on Non-Communicable Disease; WHO: Geneva, Switzerland, 2015.

4. Dobb, R. Overcoming obesity: An initial economic analysis. McKinsey Institute, Discussion Paper—November; McKinsey Global Institute: Washington, DC, USA, 2014.

5. Keats, S.; Wiggins, S. Future Diets Implications for Agriculture and Food Prices, 1st ed.; ODI—Overseas Development Institute: London, United Kingdom, 2014.

6. Sun, H.; Ma, Y.; Han, D.; Pan, C., Xu, Y. Prevalence and trends in obesity among China’s children and adolescents, 1985–2010. PLoS ONE 2014, 9, e105469.

7. Cawley, J. The Oxford Handbook of the Social Science of Obesity, 1st ed.; Oxford University Press: Oxford, United Kingdom, 2014.

8. Ng, M.; Fleming, T.; Robinson, M.; Thomson, B.; Graetz, N.; Margono, C.; Mullany, E.C.; Biryukov, S.; Abbafati, C.; Abera, S.F.; et al. Global, regional, and national prevalence of overweight and obesity in children and adults during 1980–2013: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013. Lancet 2014, 384, 766–781, doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(14)60460-8.

9. NCD Risk Factor collaboration. Trends in adult body-mass index in 200 countries from 1975 to 2014: A pooled analysis of 1698 population-based measurement studies with 19.2 million participants. Lancet 2016, 387, 1377–1396, doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(16)30054-x.

10. Swinburn, B.; Sacks, G.; Hall, K.; McPherson, K.; Finegood, D.; Moodie, M.; Gortmaker, S. The global obesity pandemic: Shaped by global drivers and local environments. Lancet 2011, 378, 804–814, doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(11)60813-1.

11. Goryakin, Y.; Suhrcke, M. Economic development, urbanization, technological change and overweight: What do we learn from 244 demographic and health surveys? Econ. Hum. Biol. 2014, 14, 109–127, doi:10.1016/j.ehb.2013.11.003.

12. Moore, B.J.; Pi-Sunyer, X. Epidemiology, etiology, and consequences of obesity. In Textbook of Obesity: Biological, Psychological and Cultural Influences; Akabas, S.R.; Lederman, S.A.; Moore, B.J. Eds.; Wiley-Blackwell, New York, NY, USA, 2012.

13. Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO). Global and Regional Food Consumption Patterns and Trends; FAO: Rome, Italy, 2003.

14. World Health Organization (WHO). Diet, Nutrition and the Prevention of Chronic Diseases; Report of a joint WHO/FAO expert consultation, WHO—Technical Report Series 916; WHO: Geneva, Switzerland, 2003.

15. Stelmach-Mardas, M.; Rodacki, T.; Dobrowolska-Iwanek, J.; Brzozowska, A.; Walkowiak, J.; Wojtanowska-Krosniak, A.; Zagrodzki, P.; Bechthold,A.; Mardas, M.; Boeing, H. Link between food energy density and body weight changes in obese adults. Nutrients 2016, 8, 229, doi:10.3390/nu8040229.

16. World Cancer Research Fund. Food, Nutrition, Physical Activity and the Prevention of Cancer; AICR—American Institute for Cancer Research: Washington, DC, USA, 2007.

17. Grossman, M. On the concept of health capital and the demand for health. J. Polit. Econ. 1972, 80, 223–255, doi:10.1086/259880.

18. Wagstaff, A. The demand for health: A simplified Grossman model. Bull. Econ Res. 1986, 38, 93–95, doi:10.1111/j.1467-8586.1986.tb00206.x.

19. Coppola, G. Health, lifestyle and growth. In Social Exclusion; AIEL Series in Labour Economics; Parodi G., Sciulli D., Eds.; Springer-Verlag: Berlin/Heidelberg, Germany, 2012.

20. Whitney, E.N.; Rolfes S.R. Understanding Nutrition, 14th ed.; Wadsworth Publishing: New York, NY, USA, 2015.

21. Mazidi, M.; Pennathur, S.; Afshinnia, F. Link of dietary patterns with metabolic syndrome: Analysis of the national health and nutrition examination survey. Nutr. Diabetes 2017, 7, e255, doi:10.1038/nutd.2017.11.

22. Stanhope, K.L. Sugar consumption, metabolic disease and obesity: The state of the controversy. Crit. Rev. Clin. Lab. Sci. 2015, 53, 52–67, doi:10.3109/10408363.2015.1084990.

23. World Health Organization (WHO) Health Topics—Body Mass Index (BMI). WHO-Europe. Available online: http://www. euro.who.int/en/health-topics/disease-prevention/nutrition/a-healthy -lifestyle/body-mass-index-bi (accessed on 12 May 2017).

24. Viscusi, W.K.; William, N.E. Utility functions that depend on health status: Estimates and economic implications. Am. Econ. Rev. 1990, 80, 353–374.

25. Argyrous, G. Endogenous demand in the theory of transformational growth. In The Economics of Demand-Led Growth Challenging the Supply-Side Vision of the Long Run; Setterfield, M. Ed. Edward Elgar: New York, NY, USA, 2002.

26. Pasinetti, L.L. Structural Change and Economic Growth; Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK, 1981.

27. Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO). Food Nutr. Numbers. FAO: Rome, Italy, 2014.

28. United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). Human Development Report; UNDP: New York, NY, USA, 2016.

29. Olsen, J.A. But health can still be a necessity. J. Health Econ. 1993, 12, 187–191, doi:10.1016/0167–6296(93)90027-c.

30. Cohen, I.K.; Ferretti, F.; McIntosh, B. A simple framework for analysing the impact of economic growth on non-communicable diseases. Cogent Econ. Financ. 2015, 3, 1045215, doi:10.1080/23322039. 2015.1045215.

31. Story, G.W.; Vlaev, I.; Seymour, B.; Darzi, A.; Dolan, R.J. Does temporal discounting explain unhealthy behaviour? A systematic review and reinforcement learning perspective. Front. Behav. Neurosci. 2014, 8, doi:10.3389/fnbeh.2014.00076.

32. Michael, M. Salt, Sugar, Fat; Random House: New York, NY, USA, 2014.

33. Lake, A.; Townshend, T. Obesogenic environments: Exploring the built and food environments. J. R. Soc. Promot. Health, 2006, 126, 262–267, doi:10.1177/1466424006070487.

34. Popkin, B.M.; Gordon-Larsen, P. The nutrition transition: Worldwide obesity dynamics and their determinants. Int. J. Obes. 2004, 28, S2–S9, doi:10.1038/sj.ijo.0802804.

35. Popkin, B.M.; Adair, L.S.; Ng, S.W. Global nutrition transition and the pandemic of obesity in developing countries. Nutr. Rev. 2012, 70, 3–21. doi:10.1111/j.1753-4887.2011.00456.x.