Cuberes, David (2008): The Diffusion of Internet: A Cross-Country Analysis.
Download (288kB) | Preview
This paper analyzes the process of Internet diffusion across the world using a panel of 199 countries during the time interval 1990-2004. We group countries in two categories, low and high income countries, and show that the Internet diffusion process is well characterized by an S-shape curve for both groups. Low income countries display a steeper diffusion curve and equivalent to a right shift of the high income countries diffusion curve. The estimated diffusion curves provide evidence of a “catching up” process, although a very slow one. We next explore the determinants of Internet diffusion at the country level and across the same income groups. Our most novel finding is that network effects seem to be crucial—the number of Internet users in a country at a given year is positively associated with the number of users in the previous year. We also find that the degree of competition in the provision of Internet contributes positively to its diffusion and we also identify significant positive language externalities.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||The Diffusion of Internet: A Cross-Country Analysis|
|Keywords:||Technological diffusion; Internet; S-shape curve; Network externalities; Digital divide|
|Subjects:||O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O5 - Economywide Country Studies > O57 - Comparative Studies of Countries
O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O3 - Innovation ; Research and Development ; Technological Change ; Intellectual Property Rights > O33 - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences ; Diffusion Processes
O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O1 - Economic Development > O14 - Industrialization ; Manufacturing and Service Industries ; Choice of Technology
|Depositing User:||David Cuberes|
|Date Deposited:||25. Apr 2008 00:59|
|Last Modified:||14. Jan 2016 07:13|
Arellano, M., and S. Bond (1991), "Some tests of specification for panel data," Review of Economic Studies, 58.
Barro, R. J., and X. Sala-i-Martin (1997), “Technological Diffusion, Convergence, and Growth,” Journal of Economic Growth, 2: pp.1-27.
Canning D. (1999), “Internet use and telecommunications infrastructure.” CAER II Discussion Paper 54, December.
Caselli, F., and W. J. Coleman II (2001), “Cross-country Technology Diffusion: The Case of Computers.” American Economic Review, vol. 91, No. 2, Papers and Proceedings of the Hundred Thirteenth Annual Meeting of the American Economic Association, May, pp. 328-335.
Chinn, M. D., and R. W. Fairlie (2007), “The Determinants of the Global Digital Divide: A Cross-Country Analysis of Computer and Internet Penetration.” Oxford Economic Papers 59, pp. 16-44.
Chong, A., and A. Micco (2003), “The Internet and the ability to innovate in Latin America.” Emerging Markets Review 4, 53-72.
Comín, D., and B. Hobijn (2003), "Cross-Country Technology Adoption: Making the Theories Face the Facts." paper prepared for the Carnegie Rochester Conference on Public Policy.
Comín, D., Hobijn, B., and E. Rovito (2006), “Five facts you need to know about technology diffusion.” NBER working paper 11928.
Dasgupta, S., Lall, S., and D. Wheeler (2001), “Policy Reform, Economic Growth, and the Digital Divide: An Econometric Analysis.” World Bank Working Paper, No. 2567, March.
Davies, S. (1979), The Diffusion of Process Innovations, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press.
De Long, J. B. (1988), “Productivity Growth, Convergence, and Welfare: Comment.” American Economic Review 78: 5, December, pp. 1138.
Dewan S., D. Ganley, and K.L. Kraemer (2004), “Cross the Digital Divide: A Cross-Country Analysis of the Determinants of IT Penetration", Personal Computing Industry Center, Graduate School of Management, University of California, Irvine.
Estache, A., M. Manacorda, and T. M. Valletti (2002), "Telecommunications, Reform, Access Regulation, and Internet Adoption in Latin America," Economía, Volume 2, Spring.
Goolsbee, A. and P. J. Klenow (2002), “Evidence on Learning and Network Externalities in the Diffusion of Home Computers,” Journal of Law and Economics, vol. XLV, October.
Gort, M. and S. Klepper (1982), "Time Paths in the Diffusion of Product Innovations," The Economic Journal, 92, September, 630-653.
Grace, J., C. Kenny, and C. Zhen-Wei Qiang (2004), “Information and Communication Technologies and Broad-Based Development. A Partial Review of the Evidence,” World Bank Working Paper No 12, Washington D.C.
Gramlich, E. M. (1994), “Infrastructure Investment: A Review Essay,” Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. XXXII, pp. 1176-1196
Griliches, Z. (1957), “Hybrid Corn: An Exploration in the Economics of Technological Change,” Econometrica, October, 25, pp. 501-522.
Guillén, M. F. and Suárez, S. (2005), “Explaining the Global Digital Divide: Economic, Political and Sociological Drivers of Cross-National Internet Use,” Social Forces, Volume 84, Number 2, pp. 681-708.
International Telecommunication Union (2006), “World Telecommunication Indicators/ICT indicators database,” Geneva, Switzerland.
Jensen, M. (2005), http://www3.sn.apc.org/africa/afrmain.htm
Jovanovic, B., and S. Lach (1989), “Entry, Exit, and Diffusion with Learning by Doing,” American Economic Review, vol. 79, No. 4, September, pp. 690-699.
Keller, W. (2001), "International Technology Diffusion," NBER working paper 8573.
Kenny, C. (2003), “The Internet and Economic Growth in Less-developed Countries: A Case of Managing Expectations?,” Oxford Development Studies, Vol. 31, No. 1, 99-113.
Kiiski, S., and M. Pohjola (2002), “Cross-country diffusion of the Internet,” Information Economics and Policy, 14, pp. 297-310
Klobas, J. E. and L.A. Clyde (1998), “Learning to use the internet in a developing country: validation of a user model,” Libri, Vol. 48, pp. 163-175
Kotler, P. (1986), Principles of Marketing, 3rd Edition, Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall
Mansfield, E. (1961), “Technical Change and the Rate of Imitation,” Econometrica, Vol. 29, No. 4, October, pp. 741-766.
Martinez, J. (1999), “The Net in Cuba,” Matrix News, Vol. 1, No. 1, January
Norris, P. (2000), “The Global Divide: Information Poverty and Internet Access Worldwide,” paper prepared for the Internet Conference at the International Political Science World Congress in Quebec City.
OECD (2001), Understanding the Digital Divide, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Paris.
Pohjola, M. (2003), “The Adoption and Diffusion of ICT across Countries: Patterns and Determinants,” The New Economy Handbook (Academic Press)
Press, L. (2000), “The State of the Internet: Growth and Gaps,” http://www.isoc.org/inet2000/cdproceedings/8e/8e_4.htm#_ftn4
Quibria, M. G., S.N. Ahmed, T. Tschang, and M. L. Reyes-Macasaquit (2002), “Digital Divide: Determinants and Policies with Special Reference to Asia,” Economics and Research Department Working Paper No. 27, Asia Development Bank, Manila.
Röller, H., and L. Waverman (2001), "Telecommunications Infrastructure and Economic Development: A Simultaneous Approach," American Economic Review, 91 (4), 909-23.
Sanchez-Robles, B. (1998), “Infrastructure Investment and Growth: Some Empirical Evidence,” Contemporary Economic Policy, Vol.XVI, pp. 98-108.
Shy, O. (2001), The Economics of Network Industries, Cambridge University Press.
Stoneman, P. (1983), The Economic Analysis of technological Change, Oxford, Oxford University Press.
Wallsten, S. (2005), “Regulation and Internet Use in Developing Countries. Economic,” Development and Cultural Change. 501-523.
World Bank (1994), World Development Report, Infrastructure for Development, Washington, D.C.
Zhen-Wei Qiang, C., and A. Pitt (2004), “Contribution of information and Communication Technologies to Growth,” World Bank Working Paper No 24, Washington D.C.