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Time-varying relationship between oil price and exchange rate

Castro Rozo, César and Jiménez-Rodríguez, Rebeca (2018): Time-varying relationship between oil price and exchange rate.

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This paper contributes to better understand the dynamic interaction between U.S. effective exchange rate (EER) and oil price by considering a Time-Varying Parameter VAR model with the use of monthly data from 1974 to 2017. Our findings show a depreciation after an oil price shock in the short-run for any period of time, although the pattern of long-run responses of U.S. EER is diverse across different period of time, with an appreciation being observed before the mid-2000s and a depreciation afterwards. This diversity of response should lead policy makers to react differently in order to counteract such shocks. Furthermore, the reaction of oil price to an appreciation of U.S. EER is negative, with the response being similar in the short-run but different in the long-run for each period of time. Thus, the different responses may generate different adverse effects on investment and the knowledge of such effects may help financial investors to diversify their investments in order to optimize the risk-return profile of their portfolios.

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