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Sobre volatilidad macroeconómica y dolarización de la riqueza: el caso argentino

Cesteros, Santiago Rodrigo (2018): Sobre volatilidad macroeconómica y dolarización de la riqueza: el caso argentino.

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Abstract

Portfolios dollarization, understood as the holding of assets in foreign currency by domestic agents, has become a recurrent process in economies that present high levels of macroeconomic and exchange rate stress, among which the Argentine Republic stands out. One of the objectives of this paper aims to explain, on the one hand, the origins and causes of the accentuated macroeconomic volatility in Argentina from its link with monetary and fiscal policies. In conjunction with these phenomena, we seek to analyze the genesis of the dollarization of wealth in the country through a consumption based asset pricing model. In turn, a third objective will be the study of the effects of dollarization on monetary policy, especially in those cases in which the central monetary authority implements an inflation targeting regime. One of the conclusions of this paper is that the dollar has played an appropriate role in safeguarding the value of the wealth of the Argentine private sector, working as an efficient insurance against the exchange volatility that has occurred historically in Argentina (as well as against recurrent inflationary episodes). In connection with this, it is also found that this saving vehicle has empirically presented a dynamic consistent with that thrown as a result of the calibration of the consumption based asset pricing model. Finally, it is concluded that the available evidence and the Latin American experience show that dollarization per se is not an obstacle to successfully implement an inflation targeting scheme and that, in addition, those countries that applied this type of regimes have managed to reduce their coefficient of transfer of the exchange rate to prices.

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