Munich Personal RePEc Archive

Fluctuations de prix des matières premières et économie congolaise : manne d’espoir ou de malédiction ?

NTUNGILA, Floribert and PINSHI, Christian P. (2019): Fluctuations de prix des matières premières et économie congolaise : manne d’espoir ou de malédiction ?

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Abstract

With the recent fall in commodity prices, the super-dependent economies of commodities, including the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) have been shaken, especially as these countries consider commodity as manna falling from the sky. Movements in commodity prices have led to significant fluctuations. This article analyzes the short and long-term sensitivity of the Congolese economy to fluctuations in commodity prices and verifies the resource curse hypothesis in the DRC. Using the fully modified least squares method (FM-OLS), we estimated the error correction model. Our conclusions suggest that the Congolese economy suffers adverse effects on short and long-term commodity price shocks. The readjustment of the economy is slow and long. The national economy does not enjoy the benefits of commodity prices, but is only suffering the devastating effects. Hence the commodity do not seem like a manna of hope and the economy remains in an eternal whirlwind of curse. As the DRC does not have a solid fiscal space, the challenge is to find pragmatic, cost-effective solutions. Economic procyclicality weighs on political strategies, and ambitious processes of structural reforms are beneficial.

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