Bakari, Sayef and Tiba, Sofien (2019): Are Exchange Rate, Exports and Domestic Investment in Tunisia Cointegrated? A Comparison of ECM and ARDL Model.
Preview |
PDF
MPRA_paper_96619.pdf Download (212kB) | Preview |
Abstract
The objective of the paper is to investigate the effect of the exchange rate, exports, and domestic investment by adopting a comparative approach between the ECM and ARDL procedure for the case of the Tunisian economy during the period of study1966-2017. Our insights of Error Correction Model recorded that the Domestic Investment and Exports have a negative impact on Exchange Rate. In accordance with the highlights of the ARDL model. Understanding these controversial nexus seems to be vitality, especially, for this current critical situation of the Tunisian economy.
Item Type: | MPRA Paper |
---|---|
Original Title: | Are Exchange Rate, Exports and Domestic Investment in Tunisia Cointegrated? A Comparison of ECM and ARDL Model |
Language: | English |
Keywords: | Exchange rate, Exports, Domestic investment, ECM, ARDL. |
Subjects: | E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E2 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E2 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy > E22 - Investment ; Capital ; Intangible Capital ; Capacity F - International Economics > F0 - General > F00 - General F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F13 - Trade Policy ; International Trade Organizations F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F14 - Empirical Studies of Trade F - International Economics > F3 - International Finance > F31 - Foreign Exchange F - International Economics > F6 - Economic Impacts of Globalization > F68 - Policy |
Item ID: | 96619 |
Depositing User: | Sayef Bakari |
Date Deposited: | 19 Oct 2019 21:01 |
Last Modified: | 19 Oct 2019 21:01 |
References: | Asteriou, D., Masatci, K .,Pilbeam, K., 2016. Exchange rate volatility and international trade: International evidence from MINT countries. Economic Modelling 58, 133-140. Baak, S., 2008. The bilateral real exchange rates and trade between China and the US. China Economic Review 19, 117-127. Bahmani-Oskooee, M., Hajilee, M. 2013. Exchange rate volatility and its impact on domestic investment. Research in Economics 67, 1-12. Bertola, G., 1998. Irreversible investment. Research in Economics 52, 3–37. Brown, R.L., Durbin, J., Evans, J.M., 1975. Techniques for testing the constancy of regression relations over time. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society 37, 149-163. Caglayan, Mu., Omar Dahi, O., Demir, F., 2013. Trade flows, exchange rate uncertainty and financial depth: Evidence from 28 emerging countries. Southern Economic Journal 79, 905-927. Chit, M.M., Rizov, M., Willenbockel, D., 2010. Exchange rate volatility and exports: New evidence from the emerging East Asian economies. The World Economy 33, 239-263. DeGrauwe, P., 1988. Exchange rate variability and the slowdown in growth in international trade. International Monetary Fund Staff Papers 35, 63-84. Dickey, D. A., Fuller, W. A., 1979. Distribution of estimators of autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association 74, 427- 31. Dickey, D. A., Fuller, W. A., 1981. Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica 49(4), 1057-72. Ethier, W., 1973. International trade and the forward exchange market. American Economic Review 63, 494-503. Grier, K., Smallwood, A., 2007. Uncertainty and export performance: Evidence from 18 countries. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 39, 965-979. Hartman, R., 1972. The effect of price and cost uncertainty on investment. Journal of Economic Theory 5, 258–266. Huchet-Bouron, M., Korinek, J., 2011. To what extent do exchange rates and volatility affect trade? OECD Trade Policy Papers: OECD Publishing 119, 1-44. Johansen, S., 1991. Estimation and hypothesis testing of cointegration vectors in gaussian vector autoregressive models. Econometrica 59, 1551-1580. McKenzie, M., 1999. The impact of exchange rate volatility on international trade flows. Journal of Economic Surveys 13, 71-106. Nishimura, Y., Hirayama, K., 2013. Does exchange rate volatility deter Japan-China trade? Evidence from pre- and post-exchange rate reform in China. Japan and the World Economy 25-26, 90-101. Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., Smith, R.J., 2001. Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics 16(3), 289-326. Pesaran, M.H, Yongcheol, S., 1999. An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modeling Approach to Cointegration Analysis. In Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium, ed. Steinar Strøm, 371-413. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Phillips, P. C. B., Perron, P., 1988. Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika 75(2), 335-46. Pindyck, R.S., 1988. Irreversible investment, capacity choice, and the value of the firm. American Economic Review 78, 969–985. Sims, C., 1980. Macroeconomics and Reality. Econometrica 48, 1-48. Wong, P. K., 2007. The effect of uncertainty on investment timing in a real option model. Journal of Economic Dynamic and Control 31, 2152–2167. |
URI: | https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/id/eprint/96619 |