Munich Personal RePEc Archive

A Monte Carlo Simulation Framework to Track Panama NDC Target

Suarez, Ronny (2019): A Monte Carlo Simulation Framework to Track Panama NDC Target.

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The 2015 Paris Agreement represents a restarting point for combating climate change. The Agreement introduces the National Determined Contributions (NDC) to control greenhouse gas emissions. This paper provides a step-by-step framework to evaluate Panama’s renewable energy contribution commitment in terms of CO2eq mitigation. Monte Carlo Simulations are used to compute dynamic scenarios of MtCO2eq emissions determining that the occurrence of delays in the entry into operation of specific projects combined with the presence of El Niño phenomenon could increase, up to 45%, the value of the CO2eq emissions compared against baseline scenario.

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