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Changes in the trade patterns of the UK in a global perspective

Erdey, László and Gáll, József and Márkus, Ádám and Tőkés, Tibor (2020): Changes in the trade patterns of the UK in a global perspective.

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The aim of our paper is threefold. Based on the contemporary theories of international trade we analyze the integration of the United Kingdom to the European Union from the aspect of merchandise trade. We use disaggregated data (6-digit, HS, CEPII BACI) on bilateral trade flows of the UK with the EU14(13) in the timeframe of 1996-2016 to show the changes on the extensive and intensive margins (à la Kehoe and Ruhl, 2013) and also that of vertical and horizontal intra-industry trade. The analyses of the changes allow us to make conclusions about the possible effect of Brexit on the intra-European trade, while we also extend our calculations to the dynamics of global patterns in intra-industry trade. The latter topic to our knowledge has not been thoroughly examined since the seminal paper of Brülhart (2009).

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