Munich Personal RePEc Archive

Trend and Forecasting Analysis on Climate Variability: A case of Nepal

Bista, Raghu (2019): Trend and Forecasting Analysis on Climate Variability: A case of Nepal. Published in: Journal of Advanced in Civil and Environmental Engineering , Vol. 6, No. 1 (24 April 2019): pp. 1-6.

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Abstract

Climate variability in Nepal has become a big environmental issue. This paper investigates empirically and analytically whether climate variability exists or not in different altitude, whether its direction moves and what will be its future direction. We use time series model based on the secondary data of hydrology and metrology collected from Department of Hydrology and Metrology, the Government of Nepal. The time series analysis finds climate variability in the different parts of Nepal in which all months have variability of temperature and rainfall precipitation. From 1975 to 2010, temperature raises annually by 20 C. However, rainfall is declining. It is forecasted change of temperature by 60c over next 40 years. In case of rainfall, it is forecasted constant and results drought in high altitude and flood in low altitude. Climate variability may be a big threat in the different parts of Nepal.

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