Giang, Thanh Long and Pfau, Wade Donald (2008): Demographic Changes and Pension Finances in Vietnam.
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This paper aims to provide a long-term financial vision for the Vietnamese pension scheme using stochastic modeling for key variables under an actuarial framework. In particular, we project the pension fund balances in order to see whether the scheme will be financially sustainable. The median values of the status-quo projections show that the pension fund will be depleted in about 2052 with a 90-percent confidence interval range of 8 years. The estimated results from our sensitivity tests show that the retirement age, the indexation method for pension benefits, and the contribution rate are all crucial determinants of the pension fund balance in the long term. At the same time, some factors, including coverage rates, administrative costs, the long-term fertility rate, and the rate of return on pension fund assets play less important roles in determining the fund’s balance.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||Demographic Changes and Pension Finances in Vietnam|
|Keywords:||aging, stochastic projections, pension finances, Vietnam|
|Subjects:||H - Public Economics > H5 - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies > H55 - Social Security and Public Pensions
G - Financial Economics > G2 - Financial Institutions and Services > G23 - Non-bank Financial Institutions ; Financial Instruments ; Institutional Investors
|Depositing User:||Thanh Long Giang|
|Date Deposited:||11. Aug 2008 00:05|
|Last Modified:||11. Feb 2013 23:25|
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