Thresholds of unhealthiness: Governing in the time of COVID-19

Cullerne Bown, William (2020): Thresholds of unhealthiness: Governing in the time of COVID-19.

Abstract

COVID-19 has left many governments facing questions of priority for which there is no obvious conceptual framework. When questions of politics, economics and health are so intertwined that one cannot be properly discussed without the others then neither political economy nor public health offer an adequate basis. Here I draw on principles of measurement to distil from epidemiology and economics the foundational concepts required in the current circumstances for governing. For governments determined to control their epidemic, I conclude they cannot avoid subordinating all other principles to a threshold of unhealthiness, and that these thresholds can be ordered. A corollary is a new and enduring uncertainty in all questions of policy. I illustrate different thresholds with examples from the United Kingdom, Hong Kong and New Zealand.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: COVID-19, Political economy, Public health, Measurement, Utility function, Pandemic, Epidemic, Epidemiology, United Kingdom, Hong Kong, New Zealand
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C0 - General; I - Health, Education, and Welfare > I1 - Health

References

Boris Johnson, 2020a. Statement on coronavirus [WWW Document]. URL https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/pm-statement-on-coronavirus-20-march-2020 (accessed 4.30.20).

Boris Johnson, 2020b. Statement in Downing Street [WWW Document]. URL https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/pm-statement-in-downing-street-27-april-2020 (accessed 4.30.20).

Coronavirus “currently eliminated” in New Zealand [WWW Document], 2020. . BBC News. URL https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-52436658 (accessed 4.30.20).

Cowling, B.J., Ali, S.T., Ng, T.W.Y., Tsang, T.K., Li, J.C.M., Fong, M.W., Liao, Q., Kwan, M.Y., Lee, S.L., Chiu, S.S., Wu, J.T., Wu, P., Leung, G.M., 2020. Impact assessment of non-pharmaceutical interventions against coronavirus disease 2019 and influenza in Hong Kong: an observational study. The Lancet Public Health 0. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2468-2667(20)30090-6

Dominic Raab, 2020. Statement on coronavirus (COVID-19) [WWW Document]. URL https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/foreign-secretarys-statement-on-coronavirus-covid-19-16-april-2020 (accessed 4.30.20).

Ferguson, N., Laydon, D., Nedjati Gilani, G., Imai, N., Ainslie, K., Baguelin, M., Bhatia, S., Boonyasiri, A., Cucunuba Perez, Z., Cuomo-Dannenburg, G., Dighe, A., Dorigatti, I., Fu, H., Gaythorpe, K., Green, W., Hamlet, A., Hinsley, W., Okell, L., Van Elsland, S., Thompson, H., Verity, R., Volz, E., Wang, H., Wang, Y., Walker, P., Walters, C., Winskill, P., Whittaker, C., Donnelly, C., Riley, S., Ghani, A., 2020. Report 9: Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID19 mortality and healthcare demand (Report), 20. https://doi.org/10.25561/77482

Flaxman, S., Mishra, S., Gandy, A., Unwin, H., Coupland, H., Mellan, T., Zhu, H., Berah, T., Eaton, J., Perez Guzman, P., Schmit, N., Cilloni, L., Ainslie, K., Baguelin, M., Blake, I., Boonyasiri, A., Boyd, O., Cattarino, L., Ciavarella, C., Cooper, L., Cucunuba Perez, Z., Cuomo-Dannenburg, G., Dighe, A., Djaafara, A., Dorigatti, I., Van Elsland, S., Fitzjohn, R., Fu, H., Gaythorpe, K., Geidelberg, L., Grassly, N., Green, W., Hallett, T., Hamlet, A., Hinsley, W., Jeffrey, B., Jorgensen, D., Knock, E., Laydon, D., Nedjati Gilani, G., Nouvellet, P., Parag, K., Siveroni, I., Thompson, H., Verity, R., Volz, E., Walters, C., Wang, H., Wang, Y., Watson, O., Winskill, P., Xi, X., Whittaker, C., Walker, P., Ghani, A., Donnelly, C., Riley, S., Okell, L., Vollmer, M., Ferguson, N., Bhatt, S., 2020. Report 13: Estimating the number of infections and the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in 11 European countries (Report), 35. https://doi.org/10.25561/77731

Goldin, I., 2020. Coronavirus is the biggest disaster for developing nations in our lifetime | Ian Goldin [WWW Document]. The Guardian. URL https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/21/coronavirus-disaster-developing-nations-global-marshall-plan (accessed 4.22.20).

Mark Carney, 2020. The world after covid-19 [WWW Document]. The Economist. URL https://www.economist.com/business/2020/04/16/by-invitation-mark-carney-on-how-the-economy-must-yield-to-human-values (accessed 4.21.20).

McLean, A., 2020. Cabinet Office Briefing Rooms COVID-19 slides 2020-04-28 [WWW Document]. URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/881811/2020-04-28_COVID-19_Press_Conference_Slides__6___1___1_.pdf

Stevens, S.S., 1951. Handbook of experimental psychology. Wiley, New York.